brent harris elliott wave
futures market advisory service

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wheat (jan. 31, 2009)

while it�s unlikely that a long-term bottom could have been hit this quickly in the wheat, as the february-to-december 2008 decline (13.34 �-to-4.55) only lasted for about 10-months, it does look like a pretty bullish pattern will remain in force until at least the end of february, 2009. because the dec.-feb drop not only traced-out a very large, [a]-[b]-[c] pattern, but this decline also produced a rather "hefty" depreciation of about 66%, the current rally almost has to be of at least the same-degree as the may-august 2008 advance. in which case, prices should remain in a general uptrend for about 3-months...minimum. of course, since it�s also possible that we are in a cycle-wave-b advance here, of the same-degree as the entire feb-dec 2008 drop, we could certainly see a much larger, and longer-lasting advance. however, because this scenario does not fit well with either the corn, or soybeans, i�m inclined to focus on the more conservative count. to that end, my best guess here is that the larger movement off the dec 2008 top is unfolding into a classic, double-three formation. in which case, once the current, primary wave-[x] rally off the december 2008 low is traced-out, prices should then stage a final, [a]-[b]-[c] decline that will likely last for a similar duration to that of the first [a]-[b]-[c] drop, or about 10-months. so, while our longer term objective is to go short this market, the near-term formation looks pretty bullish...at least for another month or two. note, because the dec-jan rally appears to have finished only an initial, (a)-wave section up, we should have a good buying opportunity on the current, wave-(b) pullback. once a wave-(b) decline ends, my bare minimum, upside target for the ensuing wave-(c)rally is at about the 7.26 3/4-7.36 1/4 area. and, it�s also possible that prices could stretch as high as the 7.52 �-7.59 and/or 7.91-8.02 � maximum resistance areas. anyhow, while i do have good support for the nearby march wheat at both the 5.71 �-5.66 and 5.52-5.43 levels, our best buy-zone (for a wave-(b) low) is at 5.30-5.22 �.

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