brent harris elliott wave
futures market advisory service

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silver (jan. 31, 2009)

while the wave-progression from the october 2008 low in silver (8.40) remains moderately bullish...for now, the longer-term pattern suggests that by march or april 2009, a highly bearish position will probably be at hand. in essence, because we only just ended a 15-year bull cycle in march of last year (at the 21.38 high), and we are now only about halfway-through the initial, cycle-wave-a section down, it�s highly likely that prices will have to at least "blow-0ut" the october 2008 low (-8.40), before the stage will be set for a longer-term rally. thus, once it is possible to label a completed primary wave-[b], or wave-[x] advance from the 8.40 low, traders should have a whale of a selling opportunity! to that end, since we now only need a "moderate" , 2-to-3-week pullback, and then one more shot-up to new rally highs, in order to effectively label a completed double-three formation, i�m guessing that the final top will occur around early march (2009). as far as key resistance is concerned, while i do have good numbers at both the 12.41-12.60 and 13.36-13.59 areas, the single-best cluster is at 14.50-14.815. this area yields the 23.6%-47.05%-55.9%-retracement combination from the 1980, march 2008 and july 2008 highs, as well as appreciations of 314.58% and 76.4% from the 1993 and 2008 lows. finally, since the overall decline from the 2008 top could be sub-dividing into either a "single-three", or a "double-three", the next "leg-down" could unfold into either a good-trending, "five-wave" pattern, or a more complicated, "three-wave" pattern (the latter of which is illustrated on the silver monthly chart). however, in either case, our minimum downside target will almost certainly be at the 7.49-7.32 level. this area incorporates the 76.4%-retracement projection from the 1993 low, and depreciations of 85.4%, 65.45% and 61.8% from the 1980, march 2008 and july 2008 highs. by the way, if a [double-three] is unfolding overall, and the [a]-wave section down reaches the 7.49-7.32 level, then the final low of cycle-wave-a could occur at the next lower support cluster, or 6.11-to-5.83?

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