SOYBEANS: [See Chart] Although we’ll probably have to LOWER our sell-order in the Jan beans, IF last week’s 9.62 low is violated first, I would sure be able to make a whale of a case for a completed, a-b-c rally off the Oct 5 low, IF we could just get a FINAL, wave-c advance...NOW! Note, assuming a [c-wave advance] can make it past the Oct 23 top of 10.29 1/4, then we’ll have a HUGE RESISTANCE CLUSTER just a little bit higher; at about 10.44 ½-to-10.55 ½. This key area incorporates the 30.9%-41.15%-61.8%-retracement combination from the 2008, 2009 and Aug 2009 highs, appreciations of 161.8%, 34.55%, 19.1%and 9.1%-from the 1999/2008/2009/Oct 2009 lows, AND the 61.8%-times wave-a projection. By the way, in the event we do see another good "spike-up" here, traders should note, that prices could reach the MAXIMUM RESISTANCE AREA (for a wave-(2) correction), or 10.72 ½-10.86. So, the "stop" probably needs to go ABOVE 10.86. Near-term resistance for Jan is at 10.06 ½-10.18, with the support at 9.86 ½-9.73, 9.63-9.54, 9.39 ½-9.29 ½ and 8.92 ½-8.81.

CORN: Since the drop from the Oct 23 top in Dec corn (4.13 ½) has now clearly EXCEEDED the greatest duration of ANY other setback in the past 6-weeks or so, we should have confirmed a completed, "leg-up" from the Sept bottom. In which case, since this now also makes it possible to label a completed, Primary wave [b]advance off the Dec 2008 low, I guess hedgers (in particular) probably have to try and SELL the current bounce.Note, because we may have only just finished wave-(1) down here, of a MUCH LARGER, five-wave/[c]-wave drop (which eventually projects to the 2.65-2.60 level), the "downside risk" is pretty BIG. Thus, IF the Dec corn happens to "spike-up" to REALLY GOOD RESISTANCE AT 4.00-4.02, preferably in conjunction with a rally to 10.44 ½-10.55 ½ in Jan beans, then HEDGERS (only) can go short. I DON’T LIKE the Oct 23 high at 4.13 ½, however, as I have ABSOLUTELY NO PROJECTIONS near that area. So, non-hedgers should stand-aside. Note, that MY BEST RESISTANCE IS AT 4.18-4.20 and 4.34-4.37. Near-term resistance is at 3.77 ½-3.82 ½, 3.89-3.91 ½, 4.00-4.02 and 4.10, with support now at 3.81 ½-3.78 ½, 3.67 ½-3.56 ½, 3.45 and 3.39 ½-3.34.

WHEAT: Again, since the rally into the Oct 23 high in Dec wheat (5.74 3/4)-never did produce a close above our BIG RESISTANCE CLUSTER at 5.51-5.58 ½, AND the subsequent drop has now resulted in a clear, "five-wave pattern", it sure looks like a MAJOR TOP has been confirmed. Note, while there’s a slight chance that we’ll see a FINAL, wave-(c)advance develop in another week or two, it’s rather apparent that the current decline is just an INITIAL, wave-1, or wave-a. Thus, IF we can get a decent wave-2, or wave-b bounce to develop BEFORE prices fall much lower, we should have a VERY HIGH PROBABILITY SELL. Once the next bounce does occur, there should be AT LEAST ONE MORE SHARP DECLINE. AND, we could be in a MUCH LARGER, Primary wave-[c]....which eventually projects to 4.18 ½-4.07. Near-term resistance is at 5.25 ½-5.32, 5.51-5.58 ½ and 5.78 ½-5.87 3/4, w/support at 5.09-5.02/4.92-4.81 3/4/4.67 3/4-4.56 3/4/4.43-4.32.

COTTON: Again, since the drop from the Oct 15 top in Dec cotton SLIGHTLY EXCEEDED the duration from the Sept 25-Oct 2/wave-two decline, it’s possible that a VERY MAJOR TOP HAS BEEN CONFIRMED. However, because there’s still NO VIABLE WAY to label a completed [c]-wave off the Aug low, AND the Oct top of 69.49 did NOT occur at ANY of our key resistance numbers, I’m still hoping that we’re only in a "wave-four" setback. In this event, once a FINAL, "fifth-wave rally" is traced-out, we should have the BEST SELLING OPPORTUNITY SINCE THE SPRING 2008 TOP. Anyhow, our MINIMUM SELL-ZONE is at 70.06-70.50, with the BEST AREA AT 72.15-72.70. Near-term resistance is at 68.04, with the support at 67.37-67.10, 66.50, 65.66-64.81 and 63.52-63.14 MAXIMUM!

HOGS: Given that our expected "penetration" of the LAST CRITICAL RESISTANCE AREA (AT 55.50-55.95) has now transpired in the Dec hogs, it certainly looks like BULLISH formation is at hand. In short, because we’ve now not only confirmed a completed, [a]-[b]-[c]decline from the 2008 top, but the wave-progression from the Aug low (43.05) also appears to be right in the "heart" of a wave-3-of-(c),OR wave-3-of-(3), I’d say our prediction of a rally to the key 60.77-61.12 level "could be low". Note, that this BIG RESISTANCE ZONE yields the 38.2%-61.8%-retracement combination from the 2008/2009 highs, AND appreciations of 194.43% and 41.15% from the 1998/2009 lows. Anyhow, IF we can get a pullback BEFORE prices go much higher, traders should try and get long. KEY SUPPORT is now at 57.15, 55.62-55.25 (BEST!), 54.20 and 53.30-52.60 MAXIMUM, with the near-term resistance at 57.72-57.92 and 59.27-59.50.

ELLIOTT WAVE FUTURES MONITOR

OJ: Considering that the Oct continuation chart high at 118.20 in OJ not only occurred right at the MINIMUM TARGET discussed over the past several months, or 117.55-to-119.95, but the subsequent drop has now also yielded a pretty convincing, "timing sell-signal", it certainly looks like SIGNIFICANT TOP has been confirmed. Note, IF in fact a TRIPLE-THREE formation off the Feb low has ENDED, then should now see decline of AT LEAST the same-degree as the entire advance. Which, at present, appears to yield a MINIMUM OBJECTIVE at about the 93.70-90.85 level (nearby). And, IF we’ve actually completed a CYCLE-WAVE-B, then we could be looking at a drop all the way back-down to the Feb low/64.60. Anyhow, IF JAN can now also post a strong close BELOW MAX! SUPPORT at about 111.85-109.00, then we’ll be looking to ADD to shorts. There’s also support for Jan at 106.20 and 103.35, w/resist. at 113.30-115.55 and 117.95-118.75.

COFFEE: While last week’s multiple, intra-day "penetrations" of our critical support at 135.35-134.70 in Dec coffee were quite "troubling"...at the time, we never actually closed below 134.70 in electronic trade. Thus, in light of Monday’s HUGE RALLY, it obviously looks like our BULLISH-COUNT was right. In which case, since we should now be in just the "third-wave" section up, of a LARGER, CYCLE-WAVE-C, this market could really "accelerate". Note, while our OPTIMUM TARGET here was (?) at 154.10-156.85, we WON’T be able to make a case for a major top, UNTIL we finish "three-up", stage a "wave-four" pullback, and then trace-out a FINAL, "fifth-wave" advance. Thus, IF 154.10-156.85 is hit right-away, it will probably ONLY produce a moderate setback. Anyhow, the support is now at 140.65-140.25/139.35-138.95/137.70-137.05/135.35-134.70 MAX?, with the near-term resistance at 143.00-143.75 and 146.10-147.10.

SILVER: While our LEAST BEARISH COUNT in Dec silver continues to strongly indicate that we will see a Primary wave-[b] decline to AT LEAST the 14.70-14.43 level; if not to 13.91-13.72, we’re definitely looking to ADD to our short-position here. However, because we technically still need to EXCEED last week’s 16.12 low, in order to confirm that EITHER a larger "five-wave", OR "seven-wave" pattern" down is actually unfolding, I’m a little reluctant to ADD right now. Note, IF we’ve already completed an INITIAL, (a)-wave section down, then we could see a pretty "sharp-bounce" on the (b)-wave, possibly back-up to the 17.125-17.245 resistance area...and maybe even as high as the key 17.94-18.17 resistance. Anyhow, IF Dec silver does drop BELOW 16.12, then we should be able to add on a small bounce, with a tight-stop. N.t. resistance is at 16.70-16.895, w/support at 16.37-16.19/15.72-15.41/15.15-15.03/14.70-14.43/13.91.

STOCKS: Although the longer-term pattern in the S&P still indicates that we should see an advance to AT LEAST 1125.75-1132.50, BEFORE the risk of a BIG, CYCLE-WAVE-TWO DECLINE WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY, the recent "penetration" of key support at 1038.50-1035.25 does look near-term BEARISH. Note, because we’ve probably confirmed that the drop from the Oct 20 top (1099.00) is a Primary wave-[4], of the same-degree as the June-July/Primary wave-[2] decline, prices will likely remain in a SIDEWAYS-TO-LOWER TREND for a similar duration, or about 20-trading days ,i.e.,until about Nov 16. Thus, IF we do get a multi-day/wave-(b) rally BEFORE our OPTIMUM, DOWNSIDE TARGET AT ABOUT 1000.00-995.00 IS HIT, we’ll look to go short. Other support is at 1026.25/1019.00-1009.50, with resistance at 1038.00-1045.50/1058.00/1067.00-1077.25 (good!)/1099.00.

NEW TRADES AND OPEN POSITIONS 11/03/09

SOYBEANS: Traders/hedgers (25%) can sell 2-Jan mini beans at 10.44, using a stop at 10.91 1/4.

CORN: Hedgers only (25%) can sell Dec corn at 3.99, using a stop at 4.13 3/4.

HOGS: Traders can buy the Dec hogs at 55.55, using a stop at 53.80.

SILVER: We are short a Dec mini silver at 17.925(+$1,485). Keep stop at 17.37

OJ: HRT are short Jan OJ from 117.75 (+$968). LOWER the stop to 117.15.