SOYBEANS: IF the May beans can "hold" KEY RESISTANCE AT 9.76-9.87, especially on a close, then there’s still a chance that a MAJOR DOWNTURN could begin..NOW However, because it looks like we’ve confirmed that the FINAL,(e)-wave advance from the Feb low is unfolding into a more "normal", a-b-c pattern,I’m guessing that we’ll "penetrate" this area. Note, because the (e)-wave section up, of the 16-month/Contracting Triangle formation will probably be about 61.8%-the length of the Oct-Dec 2009/(c)-wave rally, the MORE LIKELY TARGET here is at about the 10.06-10.23 ½. However, considering that we ONLY need to see A DROP OF MORE THAN ABOUT 20-CENTS, AND/OR A DECLINE IN EXCESS OF 1 ½-TRADING DAYS, in order to confirm a completed, c-wave rally-off the Mar 31 low, we’ll probably wait until then to sell. Support’s at 9.84-9.73/9.58-9.51 ½/9.39 ½-9.29 ½.

CORN: Although the pattern in corn continues to look VERY BEARISH overall, the slight penetration of interim resistance at about 3.58-3.61 may have forced a "moderate change" in the intermediate-term pattern. Note, while a HIGHLY BEARISH, wave-(3)-of-[3] position could still be indicated, IF prices reverse back down SHARPLY....NOW!, it’s also possible that we’ve confirmed that the drop from the Jan top was ONLY A "THREE-WAVE" MOVEMENT. In which case, the LEAST BULLISH COUNT will call for a "re-test" of the same KEY RESISTANCE AREA that produced the Mar 1 AND Mar 18 highs, or about 3.77 ½-3.84. However, IF we’ve actually been in a Contracting Triangle formation since the 2008 low, which is the likely count for beans, then prices could rebound all the way back to the key 3.99-4.02 ½ resistance level. Anyhow, one-way or another, I suspect we’ll attempt to re-enter short fairly soon. It’s just a question of when, and where? There’s also some resistance at 3.67-3.70 and 3.89-3.93 ½, with the support at 3.62-3.56, 3.46 ½-3.43 3/4, 3.37 ½-3.35 and 3.27 3/4-3.24.

WHEAT: As long as the May wheat holds our BEST RESISTANCE CLUSTER AT 4.87-4.94, AND more importantly, the Mar 17 cont. chart high at 4.98 1/4, the pattern will continue to call for a FINAL (?), (5)th-wave decline to AT LEAST the 4.24-4.10 level. In the event 4.98 1/4 is "violated", however, then we’ll have to figure that a MUCH LARGER RALLY could follow. At this point, however, I have NO IDEA how to label such a development. Anyhow,while I’m standing-aside, HRT and hedgers may want to try a short just under 4.87, with a stop at 4.99 1/4. Support for the May wheat is at 4.72-4.60, 4.45 ½-4.35 and 4.24-4.10.

COTTON: Since we now not only have a completed, "three-wave decline" in place from the Mar 1 top in cotton, but the bounce-off the April 9 low has also traced-out a "three-wave pattern"...so far, it looks like the action over the next day or two will be VERY CRITICAL! IF the May cotton can now DROP BELOW Thursday’s 79.07 low, then we’ll probably confirm that a LARGER, IMPULSE-PATTERN DOWN is indeed unfolding here. In which case, ALL TRADERS should probably go short,as the MOST BEARISH WAVE-POSITION SINCE THE 1995 TOP will be indicated. However, in the event May cotton FAILS to drop below 79.07 within the next couple of days, then we’ll probably have to figure that a "five-up" is developing-off the April 9 low. In which case, BEFORE a major top is in place, prices will likely re-test the 2008 top (91.38). Resistance for MAY is at 80.57-80.95/81.89-82.17/83.08-83.39, ,w/support at 79.32-78.06/76.72-76.00/74.57-73.94.

HOGS: While my Preferred, long-term count suggests that the (now nearby) May and June hogs should be EXTREMELY CLOSE TO A MAJOR TOP, I WON’T be able to make a good case for a completed, "ninth-wave advance" off the Mar 26 low for another week or so. Note, that we still need to see a couple-day pullback, and then one more shot-up. Anyhow, as long as MY LAST TWO MAJOR RESISTANCE AREAS HOLD between now and then, or 85.65-86.10 and 87.37-88.50 MAX!, then we’ll be looking to SELL...soon. IF 88.50 is EXCEEDED, however, then we’ll have to figure that there’s a chance prices will "blow-out" the 2008 top (90.00). Support for May/June hogs is at 86.15/84.97-84.95/83.75-83.45/81.90-81.82/79.90-79.37.

ELLIOTT WAVE FUTURES MONITOR

SUGAR: [See NEW TRADES] Since it looks like we’ve STRONGLY CONFIRMED that an INITIAL, Primary wave-[1]/wave-[a] decline off the Feb top has indeed bottomed in the May sugar; at the April 1 low 15.46, a "moderately bullish" position should be at hand. Note, that prices should now remain in a higher-trend for at least the next week or two, with a BARE MINIMUM TARGET AT 19.53-19.79.Thus, IF we can get a multi-day pullback BEFORE this area is hit, we’ll likely try a quick play on the long-side. However, IF 19.53-19.79 is reached first, then we’ll probably just wait for the right time to re-enter short. Note, once a rally of Primary-degree ends, the pattern will call for a MAJOR DROP of the same-degree as the HUGE Feb-April decline. N.t.resist.is at 17.22-17.33/17.64-17.76/18.31-18.53/18.98-19.16,w/support at 17.18-16.78/16.35-16.10/15.58-15.10

COFFEE: Again, while I guess it’s possible that the May coffee could still rally all the way back-up to the key 137.00-138.65 resistance area, BEFORE we actually hit the SINGLE-MOST BEARISH POSITION, the drop from the April 5 high sure looks like a "five-wave/impulse-pattern". In which case, BEFORE we see a meaningful, Primary wave-[2] bounce, prices should AT LEAST BLOW-OUT THE FEB LOW OF 126.55. Thus, for now, I’m inclined to LOWER our stop on shorts to just ABOVE my closest area of BIG RESISTANCE, or 132.00-133.60. Then, depending on how the pattern develops over the next few days, we’ll decide how to proceed. IF the 126.55 low is exceeded first, then we may try and pick-the-low of Primary wave-[1]...and then re-enter on the wave-[2] rally. There’s also resistance at 134.90-135.65,w/support at 131.30-128.95, 127.55, 126.30-125.35/124.00

COCOA: While we can NOT YET RULE-OUT the possibility of another "test" of our MAX RESISTANCE AREA AT 2985-3026 in the May cocoa,BOTH my "time" AND "pattern" analysis indicate that a Primary wave-[4] top should have already been hit ,i.e., at the April 1 top of 3000. In which case, since this implies that we are about to enter the wave-(3), of Primary wave-[5] section down, aggressive traders may want to ADD to shorts; IF Tuesday’s 2817 low is violated. Note, that this development ought to confirm the aforementioned count. N.t resist.is at 2880-2910/2952-2961, w/support at 2848-2834, 2769-2737, 2690-2682 and 2554.

OJ: Although a highly bearish count has NOT been confirmed yet in the OJ, the drop from the Mar 8 top has clearly produced a NEGATIVE, "five-wave/impulse-pattern". Thus, once an a-b-c rally is in place from last week’s low, traders will probably want to attempt a short-position. At that time, the pattern will call for AT LEAST ONE MORE SHARP DECLINE....and it could be a MAJOR, "third-wave"? Anyhow, IF the July OJ can trace-out a small, b-wave pullback over the next day or two, then we’ll ONLY need one more "shot-up" to complete the move. Resistance for July is at 134.80-135.20/137.000-138.15/139.40-141.10 (BEST!), with support at 131.95-131.80, 130.15-128.55, 126.70-125.10 and 123.00-122.05.

SILVER: As long as the May silver "holds" Monday’s 18.605 high initially,then we’ll ONLY need to see a DROP BELOW TUESDAY’S 17.955, in order to confirm a completed, "three-wave advance" off the Feb low. At which point,the BEST COUNT will call for a MAJOR, Primary wave-[c]decline. It should be noted, however, that once a "sell-signal" does occur, then it will become imperative that we see an immediate, "five-wave drop". If we DON’T, OR a move to another new rally highs follows, then we’ll have no choice but to conclude that the move-off the Feb low is an "impulse-wave". In this case, prices will likely "re-test" the 2008 high of 21.185. Of course, in the event a "sell-signal"does NOT occur now, then we’ll again have to wait for A DROP IN EXCESS OF 1 ½-TRADING DAYS. Resist. is at 18.835/19.26/19.69,w/support at 18.40-18.32/18.21-18.02/17.82.

STOCKS: IF we ever see A DECLINE IN EXCESS OF 3 ½-TRADING DAYS in the June S&P...we’ll go short. Otherwise, stand-aside. Resist. is at 1204.25-1208.50, 1216.00-1221.25,w/support at 1205.00/1197.75/1190.50/1183.25/1176.00/1169.00.

NEW TRADES AND OPEN POSITIONS 04/16/10

COTTON: ALL TRADERS can sell the JULY cotton at 80.59 on-a-stop, using a protive-stop at 83.10. HRT/hedgers use a stop on short MAY at 81.70 (+$190).

SUGAR:HIGH RISK TRADERS(HRT)can buy May sugar at 16.38, using a stop at 15.30

COCOA: Traders are short the May cocoa from 3172 and 2983 (+$4,030). Use a stop on HALF to 2964, and keep the stop on the other HALF at 3056.

COFFEE: Traders are short May coffee at 137.25 (+$2,062).LOWER stop to 134.15

SILVER: Traders can sell a May mini silver at 17.945 on-a-stop, using a protective-stop at 18.615.