SOYBEANS: Since last week’s penetration of the Oct 13 top in the beans has now been followed by a fairly sharp-pullback, it looks like we’ve probably confirmed that the rally off the Oct 5 low is indeed THE MOST BEARISH of the three-alternative counts recently discussed, or an intermediate wave-(2). However, because the nearby Nov contract MISSED our OPTIMUM SELL-ZONE at 10.44 ½-10.51 by a good amount, AND a clear, c-wave section up is NOT EVIDENT (yet), I still think there’s BETTER THAN A 50%-CHANCE that we’ll see a FINAL ADVANCE develop...in the next few days. In which case, IF we are able to decipher a "five-wave/c-wave-up" on the intra-day charts,at the same time prices approach the 10.44 ½ level, we’ll almost certainly go short. In the event the beans DO NOT turn back-up sharply in the next day or two, however, then we may have to figure that a MAJOR, wave-(3) decline is already underway. In which case,we’ll obviously have to LOWER our sights. N.t. resistance is at 9.76-9.87 and 10.06 ½-10.18, with support at 9.73(?), 9.63-9.54, 9.39 ½-9.29 ½ MAX!and 8.92 ½-8.81

CORN: Since it’s theoretically possible to label a completed, "five-wave rally" off the Sept 8 low in Dec corn, at last week’s 4.13 ½ high, there’s a chance that the FINAL, (c)-wave section up has ENDED. In which case, since this would mean that we’re now in an INITIAL, wave-(1) drop, of a MUCH LARGER, Primary wave-[c]decline, a SUPER BEARISH POSITION could obviously be at hand. The problem, however, is that prices clearly MISSED our FIRST REALLY GOOD TARGET at 4.18-to-4.20, AND the BEST COUNT also indicates that the rally from the Sept low is subdividing into a larger "nine-wave pattern". In which case, as long as the current setback DOES NOT REMAIN IN FORCE PAST WEDNESDAY MORNING, we should see a FINAL, "ninth-wave advance" to AT LEAST 4.18-4.20...with a move as high as 4.34-4.37 also still possible. Of course, IF the Dec corn EITHER traces-out a "five-wave decline" here, OR a new sell-off occurs AFTER Wed. morning, then we’ll have to conclude that the entire rally from the Dec 2008 low has ALREADY ENDED. Near-term resist. is at 3.78-3.82 ½, 3.89-3.91 ½ and 4.00-4.02, with KEY SUPPORT at 3.67 ½-3.56 ½, 3.45 and 3.39 ½-3.34 ½.

WHEAT: Considering that last week’s rally in the Dec wheat never did produce a close above our BIG RESISTANCE CLUSTER at 5.51-5.58 ½, AND the subsequent drop has now resulted in a clear, "five-wave pattern", it sure looks like a MAJOR TOP has been confirmed. Note, while there’s a slight chance that we’ll see a FINAL, wave-(c)advance develop in another week or two, it’s rather apparent that the current decline is just an INITIAL, wave-1, or wave-a. Thus, IF we can get a decent wave-2, or wave-b bounce to develop BEFORE prices fall much lower, we should have a VERY HIGH PROBABILITY SELL. Once the next bounce does occur, there should be AT LEAST ONE MORE SHARP DECLINE. AND, we could be in a MUCH LARGER, Primary wave-[c]....which eventually projects to 4.18 ½-4.07 Near-term resistance is at 5.03-5.07 1/4, 5.25 ½-5.32, 5.51-5.58 ½ and 5.78 ½-5.87 3/4, with support at 5.09 3/4-5.02, 4.92-4.81 3/4 and 4.67 3/4-4.56 3/4.

COTTON: Since the drop from the Oct 15 top in Dec cotton has now SLIGHTLY EXCEEDED the duration from the Sept 25-Oct 2/wave-two decline, it’s possible that a VERY MAJOR TOP HAS BEEN CONFIRMED. However, because there’s still NO VIABLE WAY to label a completed [c]-wave off the Aug low, AND the Oct top of 69.49 did NOT occur at ANY of our key resist. numbers, I’m still hoping that we’re only in a "wave-four" setback. In this event, once a FINAL, "fifth-wave rally" is traced-out, we should have the BEST SELLING OPPORTUNITY SINCE THE SPRING 2008 TOP. Anyhow, our MINIMUM SELL-ZONE is at 70.06-70.50, with the BEST AREA AT 72.15-72.70. Near-term resistance is at 67.17-68.04, with the support at 67.10, 66.50, 65.66-64.81 and 63.52-63.14 MAXIMUM!

HOGS: As long as the Dec hogs "hold" our LAST RESISTANCE AREA AT 55.50-55.95, there’s still a SLIGHT CHANCE that a MAJOR, wave-(5)decline (to 42.55-42.10)-could occur. However, because it’s no longer possible to make an intelligent case for a completed, a-b-c rally off the Aug low, I think we have to figure that we’ve probably confirmed a completed decline from the 2008 top. In which case, since we’d now be in rally that is of the SAME-DEGREE as the entire 2008-2009 decline, a PRETTY BULLISH POSITION appears to be at hand. Note, because it looks like we are just now entering the wave-3-of-(c)section up, I’m guessing that prices will advance to AT LEAST the 60.77-61.12 level, BEFORE we see a serious setback. Near-term resistance is at [55.50-55.95], 57.22-57.92 and 59.27-59.50, with support at 55.62-55.25/54.20/53.30-52.60(MAX?)/51.25.

ELLIOTT WAVE FUTURES MONITOR

SILVER: Since the Oct 14 high in Dec silver (18.175) not only occurred right at our KEY 17.94-18.315 RESISTANCE AREA, but the subsequent drop has now also SLIGHTLY EXCEEDED the greatest duration of ANY other decline since the July low, I can now make AN EVEN STRONGER CASE strong case for a completed advance of Primary-degree. In which case, we should now be in the early stages of a decline that yields a MINIMUM TARGET OF 14.70-14.43....AND it could certainly be A LOT MORE THAN THAT. Note, IF we’ve actually completed the entire rally from the 2008 low here, then the pattern would call for a [c]-wave movement of AT LEAST a 61.8%-relationship to the 2008/[a]-wave drop, or a decline of AT LEAST $7.90. There are A LOT of "outside markets" that do appear to still favor ONE MORE SHOT-UP, however, AND the last TWO SETBACKS in silver were NOT as closely related "time-wise" as I would like, so I’m inclined to wait another day or two BEFORE ADDING to our shorts. IF prices do turn back-up here, then we could see another test of the 17.94-18.315 resistance....maybe more? KEY, Near-term resistance is now at 17.125-17.245, with the support for Dec now at 16.665(?), 16.37-16.19(good), 15.72-15.41, 15.15-15.03, 14.70-14.43 and 13.91.

STOCKS: Given that the Dec S&P "held" several-tests of the KEY RESISTANCE AT 1099.00-1103.25, AND a "timing sell-signal" has now also been triggered, we’ve clearly confirmed a decline of AT LEAST the same-degree as ALL of the other drops since the July low. And, it’s even possible that we’ll now see down-move of the same-magnitude as the June-July decline. This suggests a MINIMUM TARGET at 1038.50-1035.25, with a drop as low as 1019.00-1009.50 also possible. Overall, however, because I CAN NOT MAKE A CASE for a completed, CYCLE-WAVE-ONE ADVANCE (yet), I’ll be looking to go long...once an a-b-c pattern is in place. Resistance is at 1058.00?/1067.00-1077.25(good!)/1099.00-1103.25, w/support at 1067.50-1060.00/1046.00/1038.50-1035.25/1026.25/1019.00-1009.50/1000.00-995.00

COFFEE: Although I suppose it’s possible that a major top could have been hit in the coffee, I CAN’T see how the advance from the Sept 29 low could have been of the same-degree as the Dec 2008-June 2009/A-wave rally. Thus, at least for now, the BEST COUNT here indicates that we’ve probably ONLY finished an INITIAL, wave-one section up. In which case, once the current, wave-two drop ends, a VERY BULLISH-POSITION will be at hand. At that point, the pattern will call for a wave-[3]-of-CYCLE-WAVE-C advance, with a MINIMUM TARGET AT 154.10-156.85. Anyhow, while I still CAN NOT RULE-OUT the possibility of a decline to our MAX SUPPORT AT 130.85-128.65, THE BEST SUPPORT/BUY-ZONE clearly occurs at the 135.50-134.70 level. There’s also some support at 132.40-131.95, with the resistance now at 137.00-138.60, 139.60-140.40, 143.75 and 146.10-147.10.

OJ: [See NEW TRADES] Considering that it’s now not only possible to label a completed, TRIPLE-THREE formation off the Feb low in OJ, but last week’s high (118.20) in the Nov OJ also occurred right at our longstanding, MINIMUM TARGET of 117.55-119.95, I can make a pretty good case for a MAJOR TOP. Note, IF a wave-[a],OR CYCLE-WAVE-B has peaked here, then we’d be looking a decline to AT LEAST the 90.00-to-91.00 level, and it could be A LOT MORE than that. Thus, since we also appear to have traced-out an INITIAL, "five-wave drop" on the intra-day charts, I think aggressive traders ought to take a shot at selling the current bounce. Resistance for Jan is at 117.95-118.75 and 121.55-123.95.

NEW TRADES AND OPEN POSITIONS 10/28/09

HOGS: HRT/hedgers were stopped-out of short Dec hogs at about 55.00 for a small loss of $200. Stand-aside Wednesday.

SILVER: Traders are short a Dec mini silver from 17.925 (+$1,385). Keep the stop at 18.175 for now.

COFFEE: HRT are long Dec coffee at 135.55 (+$300). Use a stop at 131.80 initially, then on move ABOVE 137.70, RAISE the stop to 133.35.

OJ: HRT sold Jan OJ at 117.75 (+$52). Use a stop at 121.65 initially, then on a move BELOW 114.10, LOWER the stop to 119.00.