SOYBEANS: Since last week’s penetration of the Oct 13 top in the beans has now been followed by a fairly sharp-pullback, it looks like we’ve probably confirmed that the rally off the Oct 5 low is indeed THE MOST BEARISH of the three-alternative counts recently discussed, or an intermediate wave-(2). However, because the nearby Nov contract MISSED our OPTIMUM SELL-ZONE at 10.44 ½-10.51 by a good amount, AND a clear, c-wave section up is NOT EVIDENT (yet), I still think there’s BETTER THAN A 50%-CHANCE that we’ll see a FINAL ADVANCE develop...in the next few days. In which case, IF we are able to decipher a "five-wave/c-wave-up" on the intra-day charts,at the same time prices approach the 10.44 ½ level, we’ll almost certainly go short. In the event the beans DO NOT turn back-up sharply in the next day or two, however, then we may have to figure that a MAJOR, wave-(3) decline is already underway. In which case, we’ll obviously have to LOWER our sights. Near-term resistance is at 9.87 and 10.07-10.18, with support at 9.86 ½-9.73(GOOD!), 9.63-9.54 and 9.39 ½-9.29 ½ MAX!

CORN: Since it’s theoretically possible to label a completed, "five-wave rally" off the Sept 8 low in Dec corn, at last week’s 4.13 ½ high, there’s a chance that the FINAL, (c)-wave section up has ENDED. In which case, since this would mean that we’re now in an INITIAL, wave-(1) drop, of a MUCH LARGER, Primary wave-[c]decline, a SUPER BEARISH POSITION could obviously be at hand. The problem, however, is that prices clearly MISSED our FIRST REALLY GOOD TARGET at 4.18-to-4.20, AND the BEST COUNT also indicates that the rally from the Sept low is subdividing into a larger "nine-wave pattern". In which case, as long as the current setback DOES NOT REMAIN IN FORCE PAST WEDNESDAY MORNING, we should see a FINAL, "ninth-wave advance" to AT LEAST 4.18-4.20...with a move as high as 4.34-4.37 also still possible. Of course, IF the Dec corn EITHER traces-out a "five-wave decline" here, OR a new sell-off occurs AFTER Wed. morning, then we’ll have to conclude that the entire rally from the Dec 2008 low has ALREADY ENDED. Near-term resist. is at 3.78-3.82 ½, 3.89-3.91 ½ and 4.00-4.02, with KEY SUPPORT at 3.84 ½-3.78 ½(?), 3.67 ½-3.56 ½ and 3.45.

WHEAT: While Friday’s intra-day "penetration" of our FIRST REALLY GOOD RESISTANCE CLUSTER at 5.51-5.58 ½ in Dec wheat may have opened-the-door for somewhat higher prices near-term, the longer-term pattern continues to strongly indicate that we should be looking to SELL. Note, because ALL of the required waves for a completed, FINAL (c)-wave section up are now in place, it looks like a Primary wave-[b] peak will be hit within a matter of days..IF it hasn’t already. Thus, since this count calls for a wave-[c]decline to AT LEAST 4.18 ½-4.07, we obviously want to get back-in short. To that end, IF we can get ONE MORE RUN-UP, our next best target area/sell-zone will be at 5.88-6.00. However, there is a slight chance prices will "accelerate"to my MAX RESISTANCE AREA(s); at 6.13-6.19/6.35-6.40, so we’ll have to be careful NOT to sell too early (again). Support is at 5.29 ½-5.17 ½, 5.09 3/4-5.02 and 4.92-4.81 3/4.

COTTON: Although a MAJOR, "timing sell-signal" could be indicated now in the Dec cotton, IF prices FIRST DROP BELOW the Oct 19 bottom at 66.35, the BEST COUNT still suggests that we’ve only been in a "wave-four" pullback. In which case, once a FINAL, "fifth-wave rally" to AT LEAST the key 72.15-72.70 resistance area is traced-out, we ought to have a WHALE OF A SELLING OPPORTUNITY. Note, while we could see an "acceleration" to my MAX RESISTANCE CLUSTER AT 74.48-75.75, the overall formation indicates that once the next "leg-up" runs it’s course, a picture-perfect, DOUBLE-THREE formation will be in place from the 2008 low. At which point, considering that CYCLE-WAVE-THREE DOWN PROJECTS TO BELOW 36.70, we should have some serious "downside potential". Near-term resistance is at 70.06-70.50, w/support at 67.37-67.10/66.50/65.66-64.81/63.52

HOGS: Provided the Dec hogs can HOLD-BELOW last week’s 54.80/54.95 high(?), our Preferred Count will continue to call for a FINAL, "fifth-wave decline" to AT LEAST 42.55-42.10. IF a move ABOVE 54.95 occurs first, however, then the advance off the Oct 6 low will appear to be subdividing into a LARGER, "five-wave movement. In which case, I’m assuming that BOTH of our MAX RESISTANCE AREAS AT 54.00-54.77 AND 55.50-55.95 will probably end-up being "violated". In this event, since we’d have to conclude that an [a]-[b]-[c]decline from the 2008 top has ENDED, the pattern would then suggest a rally into AT LEAST the Jan-Feb 2010 time-frame, with a MINIMUM TARGET at 60.75-60.97. There’s also some resist. 57.22-57.92, w/support at 53.30-52.60/51.25/50.30-49.22/47.95.

ELLIOTT WAVE FUTURES MONITOR

SILVER: Since the Oct 14 high in Dec silver (18.175) not only occurred right at our KEY 17.94-18.315 RESISTANCE AREA, but the subsequent drop has now also SLIGHTLY EXCEEDED the greatest duration of ANY other decline since the July low, I can now make AN EVEN STRONGER CASE strong case for a completed advance of Primary-degree. In which case, we should now be in the early stages of a decline that yields a MINIMUM TARGET OF 14.70-14.43....AND it could certainly be A LOT MORE THAN THAT. Note, IF we’ve actually completed the entire rally from the 2008 low here, then the pattern would call for a [c]-wave movement of AT LEAST a 61.8%-relationship to the 2008/[a]-wave drop, or a decline of AT LEAST $7.90. There are A LOT of "outside markets" that do appear to still favor ONE MORE SHOT-UP, however, AND the last TWO SETBACKS in silver were NOT as closely related "time-wise" as I would like, so I’m inclined to wait another day or two BEFORE ADDING to our shorts. IF prices do turn back-up here, then we could see another test of the 17.94-18.315 resistance....maybe more? Near-term resistance is at 17.125-17.245, with the support for Dec now at 17.165-17.01, 16.75-16.665, 16.37-16.19, 15.72-15.41 and 15.15-15.03.

STOCKS: Given that the Dec S&P "held" several-tests of the KEY RESISTANCE AT 1099.00-1103.25, AND a "timing sell-signal" has now also been triggered, we’ve clearly confirmed a decline of AT LEAST the same-degree as ALL of the other drops since the July low. And, it’s even possible that we’ll now see down-move of the same-magnitude as the June-July decline. This suggests a MINIMUM TARGET at 1038.50-1035.25, with a drop as low as 1019.00-1009.50 also possible. Overall, however, because I CAN NOT MAKE A CASE for a completed, CYCLE-WAVE-ONE ADVANCE (yet), I’ll be looking to go long...once an a-b-c pattern is in place. Resistance is at 1058.00?/1067.00-1077.25(good!)/1099.00-1103.25, w/support at 1067.50-1060.00/1046.00/1038.50-1035.25/1026.25/1019.00-1009.50/1000.00-995.00

COFFEE: Since Friday’s drop in the Dec coffee broke some pretty important, near-term support, we’ve obviously confirmed a completed "leg-up" from the Sept 29 low. However, because the [advance from the Sept 29 low] has been WAY TOO SMALL to be of the same-degree as the Dec 2008-June 2009/A-wave rally, the BEST COUNT here indicates that we’ve probably ONLY finished an INITIAL, wave-one section up. In which case, once the current, wave-two pullback ends, a VERY BULLISH-POSITION will be at hand. At that point, the pattern will call for a wave-[3]-of-CYCLE-WAVE-C advance, with a MINIMUM TARGET AT 154.10-156.85. So, while we clearly want to try and re-enter long here, the "trick" is to try and identify the correct "stop". Note, while the BEST SUPPORT now appears to be at 135.35-134.70, there’s a SLIGHT CHANCE that prices could fall all the way back to the long-term support at 130.85-128.65. Thus, since that’s a whopping $2,600 risk, I guess we’ll go with a closer stop...just UNDER interim support at 132.40-131.95. Resist. is at 137.00-138.60/139.60-140.40/143.75/146.10

OJ: [See NEW TRADES] Considering that it’s now not only possible to label a completed, TRIPLE-THREE formation off the Feb low in OJ, but last week’s high (118.20) in the Nov OJ also occurred right at our longstanding, MINIMUM TARGET of 117.55-119.95, I can make a pretty good case for a MAJOR TOP. Note, IF a wave-[a],OR CYCLE-WAVE-B has peaked here, then we’d be looking a decline to AT LEAST the 90.00-to-91.00 level, and it could be A LOT MORE than that. Thus, since we also appear to have traced-out an INITIAL, "five-wave drop" on the intra-day charts, I think aggressive traders ought to take a shot at selling the next bounce.Resist.for Jan is at 114.50-115.55/117.95-118.75/121.55-123.95

NEW TRADES AND OPEN POSITIONS 10/27/09

HOGS: HRT/hedgers keep the stop on short Dec hogs at 54.97 (+$420).

SILVER: Traders keep the stop on your short Dec mini silver at 18.175(+$830).

COFFEE: HRT re-entered long Dec coffee at 135.55 (+$356).Keep stop at 131.80.

OJ: HRT can sell the Jan OJ at 117.75, using a stop at 121.65. CANCEL the trade IF Jan OJ first DROPS BELOW 113.40.