SOYBEANS: Since the Nov and Jan beans now only need to stage one more "shot-up", in order to reach our BIG RESISTANCE CLUSTER at 10.44 ½-10.51, I suppose we could see a SIGNIFICANT, wave-(2) peak...at anytime. However, because there is really no plausible way to make a case for a completed, wave-c rally off Wednesday’s low (at least not for another couple of days), we’re going to sit-tight here...and see what happens. Note, IF it’s NOT possible to label a completed, c-wave rally...once 10.44 ½ is hit, OR a CLOSE ABOVE 10.51 OCCURS,then a move to CONSIDERABLY HIGHER LEVELS should be confirmed. In this event, since the rally off the Oct 5 low will have to be labeled as EITHER a larger,Primary wave-[b], OR a FINAL, wave-[c]-of the same-degree as the Dec 2008-June 2009 advance, the MINIMUM OBJECTIVE(s)here would be at 11.09 1/4-11.18 ½ and 11.41-11.50, with a move as high as 11.82-11.97 also possible.N.t.resist.is at 10.09-10.18,w/support at 10.03 ½/9.95/9.86 ½-9.73(GOOD!)/9.63-9.54/9.39 ½-9.29 ½ MAX

CORN: Given that the advance in Dec corn is now within "striking distance" of our FIRST REALLY GOOD SELL-ZONE, at the 27.25%-80.9%-retracement combination from the 2008/2009 highs, appreciations of 141.15%, 44.1% and 41.15% from the 2000/2008/2009 lows, AND the 76.4%-times wave-(a) projection, or 4.18-to-4.20, we may have a sell rec. in the next couple of days. However, because the wave-progression from the Sept 8 low does suggest that we’re probably still in just the "third-wave" section up, I’d really like to see a "mild", 3-day/wave-four pullback occur first, AND THEN ONE MORE SHOT-UP (wave-5-of-(c)) to new rally highs ,i.e., BEFORE we pull the trigger. Anyhow, depending on from "where" the aforementioned pullback does occur, there’s also a chance that prices could go as high as the KEY 4.34-4.37 RESISTANCE AREA. N.t. resist. is at 4.00-4.02 and 4.10,with the KEY SUPPORT at 4.00-3.97, 3.84 ½-3.78 ½, 3.67 ½-3.56 ½ and 3.45.

WHEAT: While Friday’s intra-day "penetration" of our FIRST REALLY GOOD RESISTANCE CLUSTER at 5.51-5.58 ½ in Dec wheat may have opened-the-door for somewhat higher prices near-term, the longer-term pattern continues to strongly indicate that we should be looking to SELL. Note, because ALL of the required waves for a completed, FINAL (c)-wave section up are now in place, it looks like a Primary wave-[b] peak will be hit within a matter of days..IF it hasn’t already. Thus, since this count calls for a wave-[c]decline to AT LEAST 4.18 ½-4.07, we obviously want to get back-in short. To that end, IF we can get ONE MORE RUN-UP, our next best target area/sell-zone will be at 5.88-6.00. However there is a slight chance prices will "accelerate"to my MAX RESISTANCE AREA(s); at 6.13-6.19/6.35-6.40, so we’ll have to be careful NOT to sell too early (again). Support is at 5.49-5.40/5.29 ½-5.17 ½/5.09 3/4-5.02/4.92-4.81 3/4.

COTTON: Since it’s now possible to label a completed/nearly completed, wave-4 pullback from last week’s high in the Dec cotton, we now ONLY need to stage ONE MORE ADVANCE to new rally highs (+69.49), in order to make a case for a completed, DOUBLE-THREE formation off the 2008 low. Thus, IF a good "five-wave rally" is traced-out over the next several days, AND prices also reach our OPTIMUM TARGET AT 72.15-72.70, we’ll probably go short. It should be noted, however, that I also show a HUGE RESISTANCE CLUSTER AT the 74.48-75.75 level, so there’s a chance prices could "accelerate" to this area. Anyhow, IF we’re UNABLE on our 65.71 buy-order by mid-session Monday, we’ll CANCEL and wait. N.t.resist. is at 70.06-70.50,w/support at 67.37-67.10/66.50/65.66-64.81/63.52 MAX

HOGS: Provided the Dec hogs can now HOLD-BELOW Monday’s 54.80/54.95 high(?), our Preferred Count will continue to call for a FINAL, "fifth-wave decline" to AT LEAST 42.55-42.10. IF a move ABOVE 54.95 occurs first, however, then the advance off the Oct 6 low will appear to be subdividing into a LARGER, "five-wave movement. In which case, I’m assuming that BOTH of our MAX RESISTANCE AREAS AT 54.00-54.77 AND 55.50-55.95 will probably end-up being "violated". In this event, since we’d have to conclude that an [a]-[b]-[c]decline from the 2008 top has ENDED, the pattern would then suggest a rally into AT LEAST the Jan-Feb 2010 time-frame, with a MINIMUM TARGET at 60.75-60.97. There’s also some resist. 57.22-57.92, w/support at 53.30-52.60/51.25/50.30-49.22/47.95.

ELLIOTT WAVE FUTURES MONITOR

SILVER: Given that the pullback from the Oct 14 high (18.175) in Dec silver has now just about EQUALED the greatest duration of ANY drop since the July low, or about 7 ½-trading days, ONE HECK OF A CRITICAL JUNCTURE is at hand. IF the 18.175 high "holds" initially, which is obviously what we’re hoping for, AND a new sell-off low can occur AFTER Friday, Oct 23, then we should confirm that a decline to AT LEAST THE 14.70-14.43 LEVEL is underway....AND it could be A LOT MORE THAN THAT. However, in the event a new sell-off does NOT occur after Friday, OR a move ABOVE 18.175 transpires,then a rather BULLISH position will be confirmed. In this event, since the advance off the July low will appear to unfolding into a "nine-wave extension", AND we’re ONLY in the "seventh-wave" section up now, it will probably take another several-weeks to complete the larger rally. Note, that we’d need to finish wave-seven-up, trace-out a 1-week/wave-8 pullback, and then stage ONE MORE ADVANCE to new highs. KEY RESISTANCE is at 17.94-18.315, and then 19.67-19.825, with the support now at 17.55-17.395, 17.165-17.01, 16.75-16.665, 16.37-16.19, 15.72-15.41 and 15.15.

STOCKS: As long as the Dec S&P continues to "hold" KEY RESISTANCE AT 1099.00-1103.25, there will be a SLIGHT CHANCE for a fairly significant, 8-to-20-day setback...NOW! However, because our BEST RESISTANCE AREA IS AT 1125.75-to-1132.50, AND there’s NO VIABLE WAY to make a case for a MAJOR, CYCLE-WAVE-ONE PEAK....YET, I DON’T think the risk justifies the reward-potential. Note, even IF a 2-to-4-week drop is going to occur now, we’ll still need ONE MORE SHOT-UP TO NEW HIGHS, BEFORE a BIG, CYCLE-WAVE-TWO DROP is likely. Anyhow, I’m hoping that we’ll only see a minor pullback here. In which case, we probably will be looking to SELL, IF prices can then advance to the 1125.75-1132.50 area. Support is at 1072.50, 1067.50, 1057.75-1053.00, 1045.25 and 1038.50.

COFFEE: Since Friday’s drop in the Dec coffee broke some pretty important, near-term support, we’ve obviously confirmed a completed "leg-up" from the Sept 29 low. However, because the [advance from the Sept 29 low] has been WAY TOO SMALL to be of the same-degree as the Dec 2008-June 2009/A-wave rally, the BEST COUNT here indicates that we’ve probably ONLY finished an INITIAL, wave-one section up. In which case, once the current, wave-two pullback ends, a VERY BULLISH-POSITION will be at hand. At that point, the pattern will call for a wave-[3]-of-CYCLE-WAVE-C advance, with a MINIMUM TARGET AT 154.10-156.85. So, while we clearly want to try and re-enter long here, the "trick" is to try and identify the correct "stop". Note, while the BEST SUPPORT now appears to be at 135.35-134.70, there’s a SLIGHT CHANCE that prices could fall all the way back to the long-term support at 130.85-128.65. Thus, since that’s a whopping $2,600 risk, I guess we’ll go with a closer stop...just UNDER interim support at 132.40-131.95. Resist. is at 137.00-138.60/139.60-140.40/143.75/146.10

COCOA: [No change] KEY RESISTANCE for Dec cocoa is at 3443-3461, 3542-3590 and 3734-3786, with the support at 3373, 3324, 3285, 3245, 3206, 3166 and 3126

OJ: Considering that it’s now not only possible to label a completed, TRIPLE-THREE formation off the Feb low in OJ, but this week’s 118.20 high in the Nov contract also occurred right at our longstanding, MINIMUM TARGET of 117.55-119.95, I can make a pretty good case for a MAJOR TOP. Note, IF a wave-[a],OR CYCLE-WAVE-B has peaked here, then we’d be looking a decline to AT LEAST the 90.00-to-91.00 level, and it could be A LOT MORE than that. Thus, since we also appear to have traced-out an INITIAL, "five-wave drop" on the intra-day charts, I think aggressive traders ought to take a shot at selling the next bounce. Resistance for Jan is at 114.50-115.55/117.95-118.75/121.55-123.95.

NEW TRADES AND OPEN POSITIONS 10/26/09

WHEAT: HIGH RISK TRADERS (HRT) and hedgers (25%) were stopped-out of short Dec wheat at 5.70 for a loss of $988. Stand-aside Monday.

COTTON: HIGH RISK TRADERS can buy the Dec cotton at 65.71, with a stop at 63.49. CANCEL the trade if UNABLE by 11:00 a.m. central time Monday.

HOGS: HRT/hedgers keep the stop on short Dec hogs at 54.97 (+$590).

SILVER: Traders keep the stop on your short Dec mini silver at 18.175(+$200).

COFFEE: HRT were in-and-out of long Dec coffee (139.55/136.40) for a loss of $1,181. Re-enter long at 135.55, using a stop at 131.80.

OJ: HRT can sell the Jan OJ at 117.75, using a stop at 121.65.