SOYBEANS: Since it looks like the nearby Nov beans hit a wave-b, OR wave-two low on Wednesday (at 9.77 1/4), I suspect that the action over the next couple of days will be "critical". IF a five-wave/c-wave rally can develop on the intra-day charts, in conjunction with a move-up to our OPTIMUM TARGET AREA at 10.44 ½-to-10.51, then we’ll probably want to go short on Friday/Monday. At that point, the stage could be set for a POWERFUL, WAVE-(3) DECLINE. However, IF it’s NOT possible to label a completed, c-wave rally...once 10.44 ½ is hit, OR a CLOSE ABOVE 10.51 OCCURS (by much?), then a move to CONSIDERABLY HIGHER LEVELS should be confirmed. In this event, since the rally off the Oct 5 low will probably have to be labeled as EITHER a larger, Primary wave-[b], OR a FINAL, wave-[c]-of the same-degree as the Dec 2008-June 2009 advance, the MINIMUM OBJECTIVE(s) here would be at 11.09 1/4-11.18 ½ and 11.41-11.50, with a move as high as 11.82-11.97 also possible. Near-term resistance is at 10.09-10.18, w/support at 10.03 ½/9.95/9.86 ½-9.73(GOOD!)/9.63-9.54/9.39 ½-9.29 ½MAX

CORN: Given that the advance in Dec corn is now within "striking distance" of our FIRST REALLY GOOD SELL-ZONE, at the 27.25%-80.9%-retracement combination from the 2008/2009 highs, appreciations of 141.15%, 44.1% and 41.15% from the 2000/2008/2009 lows, AND the 76.4%-times wave-(a) projection, or 4.18-to-4.20, we may have a sell rec. in the next couple of days. However, because the wave-progression from the Sept 8 low does suggest that we’re probably still in just the "third-wave" section up, I’d really like to see a "mild", 3-day/wave-four pullback occur first, AND THEN ONE MORE SHOT-UP (wave-5-of-(c)) to new rally highs ,i.e., BEFORE we pull the trigger. Anyhow, depending on from "where" the aforementioned pullback does occur, there’s also a chance that prices could go as high as the KEY 4.34-4.37 RESISTANCE AREA. There’s minor resistance at 4.10 with the KEY SUPPORT at 4.00-3.97, 3.84 ½-3.78 ½, 3.67 ½-3.56 ½ and 3.45.

WHEAT: Since the advance in Dec wheat has now reached our OPTIMUM AREA for a wave-[b] top, at the 14.58%-50%-retracement combination from the 2008/2009 highs, AND appreciations of 150% and 30.9% from the 2000/2009 lows, or 5.51-to-5.58 ½,it looks like HRT AND hedgers could have a VERY GOOD CHANCE TO SELL. Note, as long as we hold fairly close to this area, the pattern will indicate that a FINAL, wave-[c]decline to the 4.18 ½-4.07 level....is probably about to unfold. Of course, we had an awfully BIG, Primary wave-[a] drop from the June top, so it’s also possible that prices could "accelerate" to the 5.78-5.87 3/4 OR 5.98 3/4-6.00 1/4 (MAX!) level(s). Thus, assuming we at least get a decent pullback here, we’ll have to watch the intra-day pattern closely. Support for Dec is now at 5.49-5.40, 5.29 ½-5.17 ½, 5.09 3/4-5.02, 4.92-4.81 3/4 and 4.67.

COTTON: While the near-term configuration in the Dec cotton continues to look pretty BULLISH, it’s possible that at VERY IMPORTANT JUNCTURE will be hit in the next week or so. Note, IF the pullback from last week’s 69.49 high can remain in force until Thurs-Fri, then we’ll ONLY need to stage ONE MORE LEG-UP to new rally highs, in order to make a case for a completed, "five-wave rally" off the Aug 27 low. At which point, we’ll have to watch very closely, as we could be hitting a MAJOR, CYCLE-WAVE-TWO TOP. However, IF...at that time, the following pullback fails to trace-out a "bearish-five", then MUCH HIGHER PROJECTIONS will probably be indicated. In this case, the advance from the Aug 27 low likely turn into a "nine-wave extension". KEY SUPPORT is at 67.37-67.10/66.50/65.66-64.81/63.91-63.52 MAX!, w/resist. at 70.06-70.50 and 72.15-72.70.

HOGS: Provided the Dec hogs can now HOLD-BELOW Monday’s 54.80/54.95 high(?), our Preferred Count will continue to call for a FINAL, "fifth-wave decline" to AT LEAST 42.55-42.10. IF a move ABOVE 54.95 occurs first, however, then the advance off the Oct 6 low will appear to be subdividing into a LARGER, "five-wave movement. In which case, I’m assuming that BOTH of our MAX RESISTANCE AREAS AT 54.00-54.77 AND 55.50-55.95 will probably end-up being "violated". In this event, since we’d have to conclude that an [a]-[b]-[c]decline from the 2008 top has ENDED, the pattern would then suggest a rally into AT LEAST the Jan-Feb 2010 time-frame, with a MINIMUM TARGET at 60.75-60.97. There’s also some resist. 57.22-57.92, w/support at 53.30-52.60/51.25/50.30-49.22/47.95.

ELLIOTT WAVE FUTURES MONITOR

SILVER: Given that the pullback from the Oct 14 high (18.175) in Dec silver has now just about EQUALED the greatest duration of ANY drop since the July low, or about 7 ½-trading days, ONE HECK OF A CRITICAL JUNCTURE is at hand. IF the 18.175 high "holds" initially, which is obviously what we’re hoping for, AND a new sell-off low can occur AFTER Friday, Oct 23, then we should confirm that a decline to AT LEAST THE 14.70-14.43 LEVEL is underway....AND it could be A LOT MORE THAN THAT. However, in the event a new sell-off does NOT occur after Friday, OR a move ABOVE 18.175 transpires,then a rather BULLISH position will be confirmed. In this event, since the advance off the July low will appear to unfolding into a "nine-wave extension", AND we’re ONLY in the "seventh-wave" section up now, it will probably take another several-weeks to complete the larger rally. Note, that we’d need to finish wave-seven-up, trace-out a 1-week/wave-8 pullback, and then stage ONE MORE ADVANCE to new highs. KEY RESISTANCE is at 17.94-18.315, and then 19.67-19.825, with the support now at 17.55-17.395, 17.165-17.01, 16.75-16.665, 16.37-16.19, 15.72-15.41 and 15.15.

STOCKS: As long as the Dec S&P continues to "hold" KEY RESISTANCE AT 1099.00-1103.25, there will be a SLIGHT CHANCE for a fairly significant, 8-to-20-day setback...NOW! However, because our BEST RESISTANCE AREA IS AT 1125.75-to-1132.50, AND there’s NO VIABLE WAY to make a case for a MAJOR, CYCLE-WAVE-ONE PEAK....YET, I DON’T think the risk justifies the reward-potential. Note, even IF a 2-to-4-week drop is going to occur now, we’ll still need ONE MORE SHOT-UP TO NEW HIGHS, BEFORE a BIG, CYCLE-WAVE-TWO DROP is likely. Anyhow, I’m hoping that we’ll only see a minor pullback here. In which case, we probably will be looking to SELL, IF prices can then advance to the 1125.75-1132.50 area. Support’s at 1082.00, 1072.50, 1067.50, 1057.75-1053.00, 1045.25 and 1038.50.

COFFEE: Although there are a couple of different ways in which to label the wave-progression off the Sept 29 low in Dec coffee, the overall formation continues to strongly indicate that CONSIDERABLY HIGHER PRICES are likely...near-term. Note, BEFORE the stage ought to be set for a GREAT SELLING OPPORTUNITY, it looks like prices will advance to the KEY RESISTANCE CLUSTER AT 154.10-156.85. This area yields the "thrust-wave projection", the 76.4%-times wave-A projection, the 38.2%-41.15%-80.9%-retracement combination from the 1977/1997-2008 highs, AND appreciations of 276.4%, 52.95%, 38.2%, 30.9% and 23.6% from the 2001/2008/July 2009/Aug 2009/Sept 2009 lows. Thus, IF we happen to get a decent pullback BEFORE this area is reached, aggressive traders should go long KEY SUPPORT is at 143.00-142.25/140.65-140.25/139.35-138.95(BEST!)/137.70-137.05/135.35-134.70, with n.t. resist at 143.75/146.00-147.10/148.60-149.40.

COCOA: Since the Dec cocoa has now not only "blown-out" the key 3280-3329 resistance area, but prices have also slightly EXCEEDED the 2008 top of 3385, it certainly looks like we have indeed confirmed that the Bull Cycle from the 2000 low (674) is still "alive". In which case, prices should now stage a further advance to AT LEAST THE 3542-3590 LEVEL. However, because the "thrust-wave" projection from the 2008-2009 Contracting Triangle formation (at 3780), happens to occur very close to a TON OF OTHER PROJECTIONS in the 3734-3786 range, this would have to be the OPTIMUM TARGET. Thus, IF we happen to get a pullback between here AND near-term resistance at 3443-3461, traders may want to go long. Support is now at 3373, 3324, 3285, 3245, 3206, 3166 and 3126.

OJ: IF a bullish, a-b-c decline unfolds from HUGE RESISTANCE AT 117.55-119.95 IN Nov OJ, OR a close ABOVE 119.95 occurs, then we’ll probably confirm a SUPER BULLISH, CYCLE-WAVE-C ADVANCE (back-up to the 2007 high of 209.50). However, IF a "five-down" occurs instead, then the entire advance from the Feb low may be OVER. Support’s at 114.00-113.25/110.95-110.00/107.85-106.75/105.00-103.50

NEW TRADES AND OPEN POSITIONS 10/23/09

WHEAT:HRT/hedgers(25%)sold Dec wheat at 5.50 1/4. Keep the stop at 5.70.

COTTON:HIGH RISK TRADERS(HRT)can buy Dec cotton at 65.71,with a stop at 63.49

HOGS: HRT/hedgers keep the stop on short Dec hogs at 54.97.

SILVER: Traders keep the stop on your short Dec mini silver at 18.175.

COFFEE: HRT can buy Dec coffee at 139.55, using a stop at 136.45. CANCEL the trade, however, IF the Dec coffee first moves ABOVE 145.40.