SOYBEANS: Since there’s no "good-way" to make a case for a completed decline off EITHER the 2008, OR 2009 high(s) in the soybeans(yet), the overall pattern continues to look BEARISH. However, because the wave-progression from the Oct 5 low (8.78 3/4) can still be labeled a couple of different ways, the short-term pattern remains up-in-the-air. IF we are still in a LARGER, a-b-c rally off the Oct 5 low, which now appears to be the SLIGHT FAVORITE, then we should be in the FINAL, c-wave section up now. In which case, we ought to have a GOOD CHANCE TO SELL in the next few days, presumably near our original target at 10.44 ½-10.55 basis Jan. The intra-day pattern (in this case), however, suggests that we WON’T finish [c-up] any earlier than Wed morning. IF the Jan beans first CLOSE-BELOW pivotal, near-term support at 9.86-9.73, however, then the rally off the Nov 9 low will look BEARISH. In this event, I’m surmising that the Nov 9 low will be EXCEEDED. Which, as you know by now, should be enough to confirm that a MAJOR, WAVE-(3) DECLINE is already underway. There’s also minor support at 10.03 1/4, 9.95 1/4, 9.63 1/4, 9.57 3/4-9.54 and 9.39 ½-9.29 ½, with resistance at 10.06 ½-10.18/10.44 ½-10.55/10.72 ½-10.86/11.09.

CORN: As long as the Dec corn "holds" fairly close to KEY RESISTANCE AT 4.00-4.02 on a closing basis, AND 4.13 ½ intra-day, the BEST COUNT will continue to indicate that we are about to enter the "heart", of a Primary wave-[c]decline. In which case, considering that our eventual target is at 2.65-2.60, the current pattern would obviously look VERY BEARISH. As discussed previously, however, because there are NO GOOD PROJECTIONS at the 4.13 ½ area, we have to figure that there’s still a decent chance that this area will be EXCEEDED. In this event, since the pattern will indicate that a considerably LARGER, WAVE-[c]ADVANCE is unfolding-off the Sept low, we ought to see prices rally to AT LEAST THE 4.34-4.38 LEVEL. Anyhow, hedgers should keep the stop on shorts at 4.13 3/4, and traders should wait. There’s also some resistance at 4.10 and 4.18-4.20 (GOOD), w/support at 4.00-3.97/3.84 ½-3.78 ½/3.66-3.56 ½/3.45.

WHEAT: While a "penetration" of the Oct top (5.74 3/4) in Dec wheat would turn the intermediate-term pattern BULLISH, as a "five-wave rally" off the Sept cont. chart low (4.25 1/4) would be confirmed, the BEST COUNT still suggests that a "three-wave advance" has already ENDED. Thus, since this interpretation indicates that we should soon see a decline to AT LEAST the 4.87-4.81 3/4 LEVEL, I still like the short-side. Of course, the Dec wheat did close slightly ABOVE our BEST RESISTANCE CLUSTER at 5.51-5.59, so HRT/hedgers should probably "adjust" the stop to just OVER the 5.74 3/4 high. The next higher resistance areas are at 5.78 1/4-5.87 3/4 and 5.98 3/4-6.00 1/4 (good!), with the support now at 5.49-5.45 3/4/5.32 ½-5.29 ½/5.17 ½/5.09-5.02/4.92-4.81 3/4.

COTTON: Again, since last week’s 70.61 high in Dec cotton not only occurred very close to our MINIMUM TARGET of 70.06-70.58, but prices have now also EXCEEDED the critical wave-four-of-one-lesser-degree at 66.47, it sure looks like we have confirmed a COMPLETED, DOUBLE-THREE formation off the 2008 low. In which case, since this means that we should now be in just the INITIAL, wave-[1], or wave-[a]section down, of what should eventually translate into a HUGE, CYCLE-WAVE-THREE DECLINE, a HIGHLY BEARISH position appears to be at hand. Thus, while there’s a chance that prices will stage ONE MORE TEST of the 70.06-70.58 resistance area, I’m hoping that our interim resistance at 68.76-68.84 will now "hold". Note, that our BEST SELL-ZONE 67.14-68.04 was exceeded Monday. Support is at 68.40/67.25-66.52/65.67-65.38(good)/64.41/63.52-62.28.

HOGS:[No change] Given that the Dec hogs have now "penetrated" VERY GOOD SUPPORT at the 55.65-55.15 level, I guess we could have confirmed LOWER PROJECTIONS. Note, while I do have some support at 54.30, the next MAJOR AREAS are now at 53.30-52.40 and 51.50-51.25. It should be duly noted, however, that the Nov 3 top at 58.25 not only FAILED to occur at any of my key resistance numbers, but it’s also nearly impossible (in Elliott terms) to make a case for a completed advance of significance...off the Aug bottom (43.05). Thus, one way or another, I still think we’re going to see a rally to AT LEAST the 60.77-61.12 level. It’s just a question of whether or not it will happen in the Dec contract? Anyhow, HIGH RISK TRADERS may want to LOWER the stop on longs to BELOW 52.40. Resistance is at 55.57-55.95, 57.55-58.12 and 59.25-59.80.

ELLIOTT WAVE FUTURES MONITOR

SILVER: Given that the Oct 14-Oct 29 drop in Dec silver was TOO SMALL to have been of the same-degree as the June-July decline, yet that pullback was also TOO LARGE to have been of the same-degree as the previous corrections since the July bottom, I’m NOT quite sure what to make of today’s "penetration" of the key 17.94-18.17 resistance. Note, while an immediate, "downward-reversal" here could still produce a drop back-down to about the 16.37-16.19 level, there’s now really NO VIABLE WAY to make a case for a major top. In fact, considering that it’s now quite possible the July-Oct rally only completed an INITIAL, wave-(1) advance, within a LARGER, "five-wave" pattern, a BIG ACCELERATION could be unfolding. Under this count, we’d now be in the HIGHLY DYNAMIC, wave-3-of-wave-(3) position. Anyhow, assuming Dec silver gets past interim resistance at 18.405-18.47, we should see a pretty quick move-up to the next MAJOR CLUSTER AT 19.69-19.925. There’s also some resist. at 18.745-18.835, with the support at 18.315-18.21/18.095/17.84-17.79/17.55-17.395/17.165-17.01/16.75

STOCKS: Since the Dec S&P has now "penetrated" the SAME CRITICAL RESISTANCE AREA that produced the Oct top (1099.00), or 1099.00-to-1103.25, it looks like we’ve probably confirmed a DIRECT ADVANCE to the next MAJOR CLUSTER;at 1125.75 to-1132.50. This area yields a 50%-retracement from the 2007 top, appreciations of 69.1% and 30.9% from the Mar and July lows, AND the 90.9%-times Primary wave-[1] projection. As discussed previously, however, because we still HAVE NOT witnessed a clear, Primary wave-[4] pullback here, AND we now have a nearly completed, "nine-wave" count in place from the July bottom, we’re more interested in going short...fairly soon. Once a [Primary wave-[4]decline] does emerge, it should be AT LEAST the same size as the June-July drop, or a down-move of about 100.00-to-110.00 points. Near-term resist. is at 1112.50-1113.50 and 1118.50,w/support at 1111.00/1096.50(good!)/1082.25(max?)/1067.50/1053.00.

COFFEE: Given that last week’s 130.00 low in the Dec coffee not only occurred right at the upper-end of our CRITICAL 130.85-128.25 SUPPORT, but the subsequent bounce has now also confirmed a completed, "three-wave drop" off the Oct top, ONE HECK OF BULLISH POSITION could be at hand. Note, IF our Preferred Count is right, and we just finished a wave-[2] correction, then prices should now be entering a very "dynamic", Primary wave-[3], of CYCLE-WAVE-C section up In which case, our MINIMUM, near-term target will be at 154.10-156.85. Of course, this market has been EXTREMELY VOLATILE, so HIGH RISK TRADERS who may have gone long here should probably look to RAISE the stop to lock-in a profit Note, that the closest area of KEY SUPPORT is now at 135.30-133.65. N.t. resistance is at 136.70-138.35, 139.60-140.40, 142.05-143.75 and 146.10-147.10.

COCOA:[No change] The KEY BUY-ZONE IN DEC COCOA (FOR VERY HIGH RISK TRADERS)-remains at 3013-to-2991. There’s also some support at 3105-3082 and 2935-2915, with the key resistance at 3150-3170, 3293-3348 and 3443-3479.

OJ: Since the Jan OJ has so far "held" the same KEY RESISTANCE AREA that produced the Oct cont. chart high (118.20), or 117.55-to-119.95, it looks like we may have confirmed that a LARGER, wave-[b] decline is in progress. In which case, prices could drop as low as the 93.70-90.85 level. It should be noted, however, that we did EXCEED the 118.20 cont. chart high (slightly). Therefore, from a longer-term standpoint, it now appears as though the FINAL TOP from the advance off the Feb low IS NOT IN PLACE...YET. Thus, once it’s possible to label a completed, a-b-c decline here, we’ll be looking to go long. Support for Jan is at 114.10-113.25, 110.95-109.60, 107.95-107.55 and 105.55-104.25.

NEW TRADES AND OPEN POSITIONS 11/17/09

CORN: HEDGERS(25%)are short Dec corn at 3.99. Keep stop at 4.13 3/4.

WHEAT: HRT/hedgers(25%) sold Dec wheat at 5.49. Adjust stop to 5.75 1/4.

COTTON: Traders/hedgers(25%) are short Dec cotton from 67.13. Traders can keep the stop at 69.36, but hedgers should probably RAISE theirs to 70.62.

HOGS: Traders are long a Dec hog from 55.65. Keep the stop at 53.87.

COCOA: VERY HIGH RISK TRADERS can buy Dec cocoa at 3021, with a stop at 2900.

SILVER: Traders sold a Dec mini silver at 17.93. Keep stop at 18.54.