SOYBEANS: Since there’s no "good-way" to make a case for a completed decline off EITHER the 2008, OR 2009 high(s) in the soybeans(yet), the overall pattern continues to look BEARISH. However, because the wave-progression from the Oct 5 low (8.78 3/4) can still be labeled a couple of different ways, the short term pattern remains up-in-the-air. IF we are still in a LARGER, a-b-c rally off the Oct 5 low, which now appears to be the SLIGHT FAVORITE, then we should be in the FINAL, c-wave section up now. In which case, we ought to have a GOOD CHANCE TO SELL in the next few days, presumably near our original target at 10.44 ½-10.55 basis Jan. IF the Jan beans first CLOSE-BELOW pivotal,near-term support at 9.86-9.73, however, then the rally off the Nov 9 low will look BEARISH. In this event, I’m surmising that the Nov 9 low will be EXCEEDED. Which, as you know by now, should be enough to confirm that a MAJOR, WAVE-(3) DECLINE is already underway. The next lower areas of support are at 9.63, 9.57-9.54, 9.39 ½-9.29 ½/9.16 ½, with KEY, n.t. resistance at 9.85-9.87 and 10.06 ½-10.18

CORN: As long as the Dec corn "holds"KEY RESISTANCE AT 4.00-4.02 on a closing basis, AND 4.13 ½ intra-day, the BEST COUNT will continue to indicate that we are about to enter the "heart", of a Primary wave-[c]decline. In which case, considering that our eventual target is at 2.65-2.60, the current pattern would obviously look VERY BEARISH. As discussed previously, however, because there are NO GOOD PROJECTIONS at the 4.13 ½ area, we have to figure that there’s still a decent chance that this area will be EXCEEDED. In this event, since the pattern will indicate that a considerably LARGER, (c)-WAVE ADVANCE is unfold-off the Sept low, we ought to see prices rally to AT LEAST THE 4.34-4.38 LEVEL. Anyhow, hedgers should keep the stop on shorts at 4.13 3/4, and traders should wait. There’s also some resistance at 4.10 and 4.18-4.20 (GOOD), with support at 3.84 ½-3.78 ½, 3.66-3.56 ½, 3.45 and 3.39 ½-3.34 ½.

WHEAT: While a "penetration" of the Oct top (5.74 3/4) in Dec wheat would turn the intermediate-term pattern BULLISH, as a "five-wave rally" off the Sept cont. chart low (4.25 1/4) would be confirmed, the BEST COUNT still suggests that a "three-wave advance" has already ENDED. Thus, since this interpretation strongly indicates that we should soon see a decline to AT LEAST the 4.87-4.81 3/4 LEVEL, AND IT COULD BE A LOT MORE THAN THAT, we are obviously still looking to SELL here. To that end, since prices have finally posted a daily CLOSE ABOVE OUR FIRST KEY RESISTANCE AREA AT 5.25 ½-5.32 ½, it looks like we may indeed see a "spike-up" to our BEST RESISTANCE CLUSTER/SELL-ZONE AT 5.51-5.59. Support’s at 5.35-5.29 ½/5.17 ½/5.09-5.02/4.92-4.81 3/4/4.68.

COTTON: Since this week’s 70.61 high in Dec cotton not only occurred very close to our MINIMUM TARGET of 70.06-70.58, but prices have now also "blown-out" the critical wave-four-of-one-lesser-degree at 66.47, it sure looks like we have confirmed a COMPLETED, DOUBLE-THREE formation off the 2008 low. In which case, since this means that we should now be in just the INITIAL, wave-[1], or wave-[a]section down, of what should eventually translate into a HUGE, CYCLE-WAVE-THREE DECLINE, we obviously want to get short...on the next bounce. To that end, while I can NOT rule-out the possibility of another "test" of the 70.06-70.58 resistance area, the BEST SELL-ZONE now appears to be at 67.14-68.04. There’s also some resistance at 68.76-68.84, however, with the support at 66.90-66.52, 65.67-65.38(good), 64.41, 63.52-62.28 and 60.33-59.79 (good).

HOGS: Given that the Dec hogs have now "penetrated" VERY GOOD SUPPORT at the 55.65-55.15 level, I guess we could have confirmed LOWER PROJECTIONS. Note, while I do have some support at 54.30, the next MAJOR AREAS are now at 53.30-52.40 and 51.50-51.25. It should be duly noted, however, that the Nov 3 top at 58.25 not only FAILED to occur at any of my key resistance numbers, but it’s also nearly impossible (in Elliott terms) to make a case for a completed advance of significance...off the Aug bottom (43.05). Thus, one way or another, I still think we’re going to see a rally to AT LEAST the 60.77-61.12 level. It’s just a question of whether or not it will happen in the Dec contract? Anyhow, HIGH RISK TRADERS may want to LOWER the stop on longs to BELOW 52.40. Resistance is at 55.57-55.95, 57.55-58.12 and 59.25-59.80.

ELLIOTT WAVE FUTURES MONITOR

COFFEE: Although the Dec coffee would "technically" still have to EXCEED the Sept low at 125.30, in order to NEGATE our predicted "thrust-wave advance" to the 154.10-156.85 level, prices should probably "hold" CRITICAL SUPPORT AT 130.85-128.25 ,i.e., IF a bullish, intermediate-term count is indeed correct. This key area yields the 30.9%-38.2%-50%retracement combination from the 2001, 2008/July 2009 lows, AND depreciations of 61.8%, 58.85%, 23.6% and 11.795%from the 1977/1997/2008/2009 highs. Anyhow, since I can now also make a case for a nearly completed, a-b-c decline from the Oct top, HIGH RISK TRADERS may want to try the long-side, using a CLOSE-ONLY-STOP BELOW 128.00(the close of elec). This market has been awfully "erratic", however, so I’m officially standing aside. The next MAJOR SUPPORT area is at 125.35-123.40, with the resistance now at 132.00-133.00, 134.80, 136.70-138.35, 139.60-140.40 and 142.05-143.75.

COCOA: [No change] Since the Dec cocoa is now getting pretty close to our MAXIMUM SUPPORT CLUSTER; at the 14.58%-19.1%-27.25%-retracement combination from the 2000/2004/2008 lows, AND depreciations of 44.1% and 11.795% from the 1977/2009 highs, or 3103-to-2991, HIGH RISK TRADERS may want to try the long-side. Note, IF my Preferred Count is right, we should see a FINAL, [5]th-wave advance to AT LEAST the 3542-3590 level. However, because this market still appears to be WAY OVERDUE FOR A BIG DROP, AND the move-off the Oct top looks more like a "bearish-five", rather than a "bullish-three", I’m ONLY going to make the recommendation for VERY HIGH RISK TRADERS. There’s also some support at 2935-2915, with the resistance at 3150-3170, 3293-3348 and 3443-3479.

OJ: Since the Jan OJ has now reached the same KEY RESISTANCE that produced the Oct cont. chart high (118.20), or 117.55-to-119.95, a VERY PIVOTAL POSITION is at hand. IF this area "holds", then we should see a drop to AT LEAST THE 93.70-90.85 LEVEL...NOW. However, IF 119.95 is penetrated here, then the SUPER BULLISH COUNT outlined in the Oct Quarterly Report may well be "confirmed". The next higher resistance area is at 122.40-124.20, with the support at 117.10-115.80, 114.10-113.25, 110.95-109.60, 107.95-107.55 and 105.55.

SILVER: As long as the next "shot-up" in the Dec silver does NOT result in a CLOSE ABOVE the same KEY RESISTANCE AREA that produced the Oct top (18.175), or 17.94-to-18.17, our Preferred Count will continue to indicate that a LARGER Primary wave-[b] decline is still in progress. In which case, prices should now stage a wave-(c)decline to AT LEAST the 16.37-16.19 level...and it could be A LOT more than that? In the event a close ABOVE 18.17 occurs first (by much?), however, then I guess we’ll have to figure that a direct advance to our next MAJOR RESISTANCE CLUSTER AT 19.69-19.70 is going to occur. Anyhow, we’ll continue efforts to sell near 17.94. N.t. resist. is at 17.54-17.70 and 18.405-18.47, w/support at 17.39/17.165-17.01/16.75-16.665/16.37-16.19/15.72.

STOCKS: Since the Dec S&P has now rallied back-up to the SAME KEY RESISTANCE AREA that produced the Oct top (1099.00), or 1099.00-to-1103.25, it looks like a rather "pivotal" position is at hand. IF this area is EXCEEDED, especially on a close, then we’ll likely confirm an IMMEDIATE ADVANCE to the next MAJOR AREA outlined in the Oct Quarterly, or 1125.75-1132.50. However, because we still have NOT seen a clear, primary wave-[4] decline occur...yet, I think it’s VERY RISKY to mess-around on the long-side here. Note, IF we hold 1103.25 on a close, then we could still see a SHARP, (c)-wave decline to 1019.00...NOW And, even IF a move-up to 1125.75-1132.50 does occur first, the LARGEST DROP since the June-July decline will probably follow. "Pivotal" support is now at 1082.25, w/lesser support at 1067.50, 1053.00, 1038.50, 1024.00 and 1009.50.

NEW TRADES AND OPEN POSITIONS 11/16/09

SOYBEANS: Traders/hedgers(25%) were stopped-out of short Jan beans at about 10.04 for a loss of $1,125. Stand-aside Monday.

CORN: HEDGERS(25%)are short Dec corn at 3.99 (+$425). Keep stop at 4.13 3/4.

WHEAT: HRT/hedgers(25%) can sell Dec wheat at 5.49, using a stop at 5.74 1/4.

COTTON: Traders/hedgers(25%)sold Dec cotton at 67.13(+$15).Keep stop at 69.36

HOGS: Traders are long a Dec hog from 55.65 (-$240). Keep the stop at 53.87.

COCOA: VERY HIGH RISK TRADERS can buy Dec cocoa at 3021, with a stop at 2900.

SILVER: Traders can sell a Dec mini silver at 17.93, with a stop at 18.54.