SOYBEANS: Since our anticipated "penetration" of KEY RESISTANCE at 9.76-9.87 has finally transpired in the May beans, we have obviously confirmed that a larger, a-b-c rally is still in progress from the Feb low. However, because the BEST COUNT continues to suggest that we are in a FINAL, (e)-wave section up, of a 16-month Contracting Triangle formation, prices could effectively PEAK an anytime here. Note,because ALL of the required waves for a potentially completed, (e)-wave advance are already in place, AND prices are now also close to the KEY 61.8%-times wave-(c)projection, or 10.06-to-10.23 ½, traders should be prepared to go short...soon. At this point, however, considering that we ONLY need to see A DROP IN EXCESS OF 1 ½-TRADING DAYS,in order to confirm what should be a MAJOR HIGH, I’m inclined to refrain from attempting to "pick-the-top". The next higher resistance areas are at 10.40-10.51 and 10.66-10.78 ½ MAX. Support’s at 9.95/9.86 ½-9.73/9.58-9.51 ½/9.39 ½-9.29 ½/9.16 ½.

CORN: Although it’s still possible that we could see a POWERFUL, wave-3-of-(3)DECLINE unfold now...in the corn, the "duration" of the this correction is getting awfully LONG; as compared to the wave-(2) rally. Thus, UNLESS prices turn SHARPLY LOWER IMMEDIATELY, I think the more likely scenario is that we’re actually still in a larger, wave-(2), OR a wave-(e) advance.In which case, BEFORE it’s "lights-out", the nearby contract should AT LEAST RE-TEST the same KEY RESISTANCE AREA that produced BOTH March highs, or 3.77 ½-3.84. It’s also possible, however, that the advance from the April 1 low is a FINAL, (e)-wave section, of a 16-month Contracting Triangle formation (just like the beans). Under this count, prices could go as high as the 3.99-4.02 ½ level. Anyhow, I’ll be monitoring the next pullback closely, to see IF we should sell now..OR wait. Near-term resistance for May is at 3.59-3.61 and 3.67-3.70,with the support at 3.59-3.56, 3.46 ½-3.43 3/4, 3.37 ½-3.35, 3.27 3/4-3.24 ½ and 3.14 3/4.

WHEAT: Although I’d be a little nervous on the short-side, IF the May wheat happens to EXCEED last week’s 4.91 1/4 high, the overall pattern will probably REMAIN BEARISH...as long as the Mar 17 cont. chart high a 4.98 1/4 IS NOT VIOLATED as well. Note, because we still need to see a drop to at least the 4.24-4.10 level, in order to make a case for a competed decline off the 2008 top, I still believe that prices should turn back down now. IF they DON’T, however, then I guess considerably HIGHER NUMBERS could be confirmed??KEY RESISTANCE is at 4.87-4.94 and 5.03-5.08 ½, with support at 4.86-4.85, 4.72-4.60 and 4.45 ½.

COTTON: Given that a bullish, "five-wave advance" has NOT be confirmed off the April 9 low in July cotton (yet), we could theoretically still get a MAJOR "sell-signal"...IF KEY SUPPORT AT 83.08-82.70 IS QUICKLY EXCEEDED. However, because the nearby May contract has now "penetrated" the Mar 1 cont. chart high at 84.32, our Preferred Count has clearly shifted to the BULL’s side. In short, because it now appears as though we are ONLY in an 11th-wave advance, within an even LARGER 13-wave extension, the implication here is that prices are now going to "blow-out" the 2008 top (91.38).Resist. for JULY is at 85.30-85.79/86.93-87.12/88.52, w/support at 85.12/84.17/83.08-82.70/81.32-80.06.

HOGS: Since it’s now not only possible to label a completed/nearly completed, "ninth-wave advance" off the Mar 26 low in BOTH the May and June hogs, AND prices have also reached our MAXIMUM RESISTANCE AREA AT 87.37-88.50, ONE HECK OF A CRITICAL POSITION is at hand. As long as BOTH the May and June hogs DO NOT VIOLATE this area, our "Preferred", long-term count will continue to favor a VERY MAJOR TOP. IF this level is "penetrated", however, then we’ll have no choice but to conclude that prices are headed for the 2008 high at 90.00. Anyhow, IF the JUNE hogs hold resistance initially, AND THEN STAGE A DROP BELOW MONDAY’S 85.40 LOW, we’ll look to go short. Otherwise, we’ll take a "wait-and-see" approach. Support’s at 86.90, 86.15, 84.97-84.95, 83.75-83.45 and 81.90.

ELLIOTT WAVE FUTURES MONITOR

OJ: Given that it’s now possible to label a completed/nearly completed, a-b-c rally off the April 8 low in OJ, AND prices have also reached our FIRST REALLY GOOD RESISTANCE AREA; at 137.00-138.70 May/138.20-139.90 July, it sure looks like we ought to have a decent sell. In short, because the Mar-April drop produced a clear, "five-wave pattern" , upon the completion of the current bounce prices should stage AT LEAST ONE MORE DECLINE of the same-magnitude. And, IF a long-term top is actually in place here(which has NOT been confirmed yet), then A MUCH LARGER FALL is likely. The next higher resist. for July is at 142.50-143.20/146.80-148.10, w/support at 138.00-136.75/134.20-132.45/130.75-130.60.

COCOA: [See NEW TRADES] While it’s virtually impossible (in Elliott terms) to make a highly bullish case here in the cocoa, this week’s clear "penetration" of our KEY RESISTANCE AT 2985-3026 will likely result in MODERATELY HIGHER PRICES..near-term. Note, UNLESS we see an immediate "downturn", we’ll have to figure that advance off the Mar low is actually a Primary wave-[b]; NOT a wave-[4]. In which case, the OPTIMUM UPSIDE TARGET/SELL-ZONE will actually be at about the 3156-3186 level basis the nearby contract, or about 3169-3199 basis July. There’s also some resistance at 3092-3109 basis JULY, with the support for JULY now at 3099 (?), 3020-2982, 2932-2918, 2861-2847 and 2782.

SUGAR: Although it’s still too early to tell whether the advance from the April 1 low in May sugar is subdividing into a SINGLE, or DOUBLE-THREE formation, it continues to look like a LARGER UP-MOVE of Primary-degree is developing. In which case, prices ought to remain in a higher trend for at least another week or two, with a MINIMUM TARGET AT *18.31-18.53. It should be noted however, that based the "magnitude" of the INITIAL DECLINE, it looks like the FAR MORE LIKELY TARGET IS AT 19.53-19.79, with the "mid-point" resistance at 18.98-19.16. Anyhow, as long as the April 1 low at 15.46 holds, HRT should be LIGHTLY LONG. Near-term resistance for May is at 16.80-16.98, 17.22-17.33 and 17.64-17.76, with the support at 16.35-16.10, 15.58-15.10 and 14.37-13.84.

COFFEE: While the long-term pattern in coffee continues to look INCREDIBLY BEARISH, the decline from the April 5 high has reached a somewhat important juncture...in terms of the overall pattern development. IF a several-day, wave-[2] bounce occurs BEFORE the Mar cont. chart low of 126.55 is exceeded, then we’ll probably see a MUCH LARGER, "five-wave decline" occur...BEFORE we see a significant rally. However, IF 126.55 is penetrated first, then we’ll probably want to look for a spot to take profits, as a multi-week/wave-[2]rally could then follow. Resistance for MAY is at 129.50-130.25 and 132.00-133.60 (GOOD!), w/support at 129.70-128.95, 127.55, 126.30-125.35 and 124.00-123.00.

SILVER: Since a completed, "three-wave advance" off the Feb low has now been confirmed in the May silver, it certainly looks like a Primary wave-[b] top has been hit. In which case, considering that the expected,Primary wave-[c]decline will not only be of the same-degree as the BIG Dec-Feb drop, but the larger move-off the Dec 2009 top should also be of EQUAL-DEGREE to that of the HUGE 2008 DECLINE, I believe we’ll see a move to UNDER $12.00. Note, that the drop from the 2009 top should be AT LEAST 61.8%-the length of the 2008 move, or about 11.88-11.52. Resist. for May is at 17.98-18.17(good), 18.405-18.455, 18.74-18.835, w/support at 18.02/17.82-17.62/17.405/17.14-17.01/16.69-16.595.

STOCKS: [See NEW TRADES]IF the June S&P happens to "hold" last week’s 1210.50 high initially, AND a new sell-off low also occurs AFTER 10:00 a.m. CENT. TIME ON WEDNESDAY (-1179.75), then a completed advance off the Feb low should be confirmed. In which case, since this will imply the BIGGEST DROP IN 13-MONTHS, we’ll want to try and get short. IF 1210.50 is violated first, however, then we’ll be right back in the same boat ,i.e., we’ll need a drop IN EXCESS OF 3 ½-TRADING DAYS to get a sell. Resist. is at 1204.25-1208.50, 1216.00-1221.25, 1234.00-1239.50, w/support at 1205.00/1197.75/1190.50/1183.25(good)/1176.00.

NEW TRADES AND OPEN POSITIONS 04/22/10

SUGAR: HRT are long May sugar at 16.38 (+$190). Keep stop at 15.30 for now.

COCOA: Traders were stopped-out of short May cocoa at 3060 for a $1,120 profit ***Lets now sell the JULY cocoa at 3164, w/a close-only-stop (elec.) at 3216.

COFFEE: Traders are short May coffee at 137.25 (+$2,831). Keep stop at 134.00

OJ: Traders sold the July OJ at 138.80 (-$23). Keep the stop at 143.80.

SILVER: We are short a May mini silver at 17.94(-$138). Keep stop at 18.615.

STOCKS: Traders can sell the June mini S&P at 1179.50 on-a-stop, using a protective-stop at 1199.00. CANCEL the trade, however, IF FIRST ABOVE 1210.50.