SOYBEANS: IF the May beans can "hold" KEY RESISTANCE AT 9.76-9.87, especially on a close, then there’s still a chance that a MAJOR DOWNTURN could begin..NOW However, because it looks like we’ve confirmed that the FINAL,(e)-wave advance from the Feb low is unfolding into a more "normal", a-b-c pattern, I’m guessing that we’ll "penetrate" this area. Note, because the (e)-wave section up, of the 16-month/Contracting Triangle formation will probably be about 61.8%-the length of the Oct-Dec 2009/(c)-wave rally, the MORE LIKELY TARGET here is at about the 10.06-10.23 ½. However, considering that we ONLY need to see A DROP OF MORE THAN ABOUT 20-CENTS, AND/OR A DECLINE IN EXCESS OF 1 ½-TRADING DAYS, in order to confirm a completed, c-wave rally-off the Mar 31 low, we’ll probably wait until then to sell. Support’s at 9.81-9.73/9.58-9.51 ½/9.39 ½-9.29 ½.

CORN: Although the pattern in corn continues to look VERY BEARISH overall, the slight penetration of interim resistance at about 3.58-3.61 may have forced a "moderate change" in the intermediate-term pattern. Note, while a HIGHLY BEARISH, wave-(3)-of-[3] position could still be indicated, IF prices reverse backdown SHARPLY....NOW?, it’s also possible that we’ve confirmed that the drop from the Jan top was ONLY A "THREE-WAVE" MOVEMENT. In which case, the LEAST BULLISH COUNT will call for a "re-test" of the same KEY RESISTANCE AREA that produced the Mar 1 AND Mar 18 highs, or about 3.77 ½-3.84. However, IF we’ve actually been in a Contracting Triangle formation since the 2008 low, then we could see a move as high as 3.99-4.02 ½. N. t. resist. is at 3.67-3.70/3.89-3.93 ½, w/support at 3.62-3.56, 3.46 ½-3.43 3/4, 3.37 ½-3.35 and 3.27 3/4-3.24

WHEAT: As long as the May wheat holds our BEST RESISTANCE CLUSTER AT 4.87-4.94, AND more importantly, the Mar 17 cont. chart high at 4.98 1/4, the pattern will continue to call for a FINAL (?), (5)th-wave decline to AT LEAST the 4.24-4.10 level. In the event 4.98 1/4 is "violated", however, then we’ll have to figure that a MUCH LARGER RALLY could follow. At this point, however, I have NO IDEA how to label such a development. Anyhow,while I’m standing-aside, HRT and hedgers may want to try a short just under 4.87, with a stop at 4.99 1/4. Support for May is at 4.88-4.85, 4.72-4.60, 4.45 ½-4.35 and 4.24-4.10.

COTTON: Since we now not only have a completed, "three-wave decline" in place from the Mar 1 top in cotton, but the bounce-off the April 9 low has also traced-out a "three-wave pattern"...so far, it looks like the action over the next day or two will be VERY CRITICAL! IF the May cotton can now DROP BELOW Friday’s 79.04 low, then we’ll probably confirm that a LARGER, IMPULSE-PATTERN DOWN is indeed unfolding here. In which case, ALL TRADERS should probably go short,as the MOST BEARISH WAVE-POSITION SINCE THE 1995 TOP will be indicated. However, in the event May cotton FAILS to drop below 79.04 within the next couple of days, then we’ll probably have to figure that a "five-up" is developing-off the April 9 low. In which case, BEFORE a major top is in place, prices will likely re-test the 2008 top (91.38). Resistance for MAY is at 80.57-80.95/81.89-82.17/83.08-83.39, ,w/support at 79.32-78.06/76.72-76.00/74.57-73.94.

HOGS: While my Preferred, long-term count suggests that the (now nearby) May and June hogs should be EXTREMELY CLOSE TO A MAJOR TOP, I WON’T be able to make a good case for a completed, "ninth-wave advance" off the Mar 26 low for another week or so. Note, that we still need to see a couple-day pullback, and then one more shot-up. Anyhow, as long as MY LAST TWO MAJOR RESISTANCE AREAS HOLD between now and then, or 85.65-86.10 and 87.37-88.50 MAX!, then we’ll be looking to SELL...soon. IF 88.50 is EXCEEDED, however, then we’ll have to figure that there’s a chance prices will "blow-out" the 2008 top (90.00). Support for May/June hogs is at 86.15/84.97-84.95/83.75-83.45/81.90-81.82/79.90-79.37.

ELLIOTT WAVE FUTURES MONITOR

COCOA: Although the overall wave-count will almost certainly remain BEARISH, regardless of near-term developments, Friday’s rally in the May cocoa has put the immediate pattern in a somewhat "critical" position. As long as our BIG RESISTANCE AREA at 2985-3026 IS NOT EXCEEDED BY MUCH, then our Preferred Count will continue to call for a MAJOR, Primary wave-[5] decline...NOW. IF 3026 is penetrated by much, however, then we’ll have to figure that we may actually be in a Primary wave-[b] advance. In which case, we’ll probably look to re-enter short at the next GOOD RESISTANCE AREA; or 3157-3171. N.t. resist. is at 3079-3096, with support at 2969?, 2919-2910, 2848-2834, 2769-2737 and 2690-2682.

SUGAR: Since we should have CONFIRMED that an INITIAL, Primary wave-[1]/wave-[a] decline off the Feb top has indeed bottomed in the May sugar; at the April 1 low 15.46, a "moderately bullish" position should be at hand. Note, that prices should now remain in a higher-trend for at least the next week or two, with a BARE MINIMUM TARGET AT 19.53-19.79. Thus, as long as the current, wave-(b) setback DOES NOT EXCEED the 15 46 area (by much), HIGH RISK TRADERS should be LIGHTLY LONG. Resistance for May is at 16.21-16.32/16.80-16.98/17.22-17.33-17.64-17.76/18.31-18.53/18.98-19.16,w/support at 16.10/15.58-15.10/14.37-13.84

COFFEE: Again, while I guess it’s possible that the May coffee could still rally all the way back-up to the key 137.00-138.65 resistance area, BEFORE we actually hit the SINGLE-MOST BEARISH POSITION, the drop from the April 5 high sure looks like a "five-wave/impulse-pattern". In which case, BEFORE we see a meaningful, Primary wave-[2] bounce, prices should AT LEAST BLOW-OUT THE FEB LOW OF 126.55. Thus, for now, I’m inclined to LOWER our stop on shorts to just ABOVE my closest area of BIG RESISTANCE, or 132.00-133.60. Then, depending on how the pattern develops over the next few days, we’ll decide how to proceed. IF the 126.55 low is exceeded first, then we may try and pick-the-low of Primary wave-[1]...and then re-enter on the wave-[2] rally. Near-term resistance is at 129.50-130.25, w/support at 129.50-128.95/127.55/126.30-125.35/124.00.

OJ: [See NEW TRADES] Although a highly bearish count has NOT been confirmed yet in the OJ, the drop from the Mar 8 top has clearly produced a NEGATIVE, "five-wave pattern". Thus, once an a-b-c rally is in place from last week’s low, traders will probably want to attempt a short-position. At that time, the pattern will call for AT LEAST ONE MORE SHARP DECLINE....and it could be a MAJOR, "third-wave"? Anyhow, IF the July OJ can trace-out a small, b-wave pullback over the next day or two, then we’ll ONLY need one more "shot-up" to complete the move. Resistance for July is at 134.80-135.20, 137.000-138.15 and 139.40-141.10 (BEST!), w/support at 131.95-131.80/130.15-128.55/126.70-125.10.

SILVER: Since a completed, "three-wave advance" off the Feb low has now been confirmed in the May silver, it certainly looks like a Primary wave-[b] top has been hit. In which case, considering that the expected, Primary wave-[c]decline will not only be of the same-degree as the BIG Dec-Feb drop, but the larger move-off the Dec 2009 top should also be of EQUAL-DEGREE to that of the HUGE 2008 DECLINE, I believe we’ll see a move to UNDER $12.00. Note, that the drop from the 2009 top should be AT LEAST 61.8%-the length of the 2008 move, or about 11.88-11.52. Of course, in the event May silver now "violates" the April 12 high at 18.605, then expect a "re-test" of the 2008 high at 21.185. Resistance for May is now at 17.98-18.17(good), 18.405-18.455, 18.74-18.835, with support at 17.70-17.72/17.405/17.14-17.01/16.69-16.595/16.425/16.185.

STOCKS: Although we WON’T be able to get a "timing sell-signal" in the June S&P until late Tues/early Wed., this is the first time in 10-weeks that a previous low (from a multi-day decline) has been EXCEEDED. Thus, since it’s also possible to label a completed, Primary wave-[5] advance off the Feb low, we’ll have to watch the intra-day pattern closely. IF a "five-down" occurs here, which we should know(?) by Monday morning, then we may want to go short...NOW. Resistance is at 1189.50-1195.75, 1204.25-1208.50 and 1216.00-1221.25, with the support at 1190.50/1183.25(good)/1176.00/1169.00/1161.50/1154.50(good).

NEW TRADES AND OPEN POSITIONS 04/19/10

COTTON: ALL TRADERS can sell the JULY cotton at *80.63 on-a-stop, using a protective-stop at 83.10. HRT/hedgers use a stop on short MAY at 81.70 (+$435).

SUGAR: HIGH RISK TRADERS bought May sugar at 16.38(-$482). Keep stop at 15.30

COCOA: Traders were stopped-out of ½ their short May cocoa at 2965 for a $180 profit. We are still short 1 from 3172 (+$2,070). Keep the stop here at 3056.

COFFEE: Traders are short May coffee at 137.25 (+$3,056).LOWER stop to 134.00

OJ: Traders can sell the July OJ at 139.35, using a stop at 145.35.

SILVER: Traders sold a May mini silver at 17.94(+$265). Keep stop at 18.615.