SOYBEANS: Although the May beans do need to DROP UNDER last week’s 9.30 ½ low in the next couple hours of trading, in order to confirm that a BEARISH,"five-wave pattern" is indeed developing-off the Mar 29 top, the BEST COUNT clearly points in that direction. Note,because prices not only held our KEY RESISTANCE at 9.76-9.87 "three-times" in the past 6-weeks, but a pretty good-looking, Double-Three formation also appears to be in place from the Feb 4 low, it certainly appears as though our long-anticipated, Primary wave-[c]decline is underway. In which case, since this implies that a MAJOR,Primary wave-[c]decline will remain in force UNTIL the 2008 low of 7.76 1/4 is EXCEEDED, traders and hedgers will obviously want to try and get back in on the short-side. To that end, IF 9.30 ½ is violated by late Mon. night, then we’ll probably look to sell the next minor bounce. IF NOT, however, then we’ll have to wait and see? Resistance for May is at 9.42-9.45 ½, 9.58-9.67 ½ and 9.76-9.87, with the support at 9.36 ½-9.29 ½, 9.17-9.16, 8.92-8.80 ½(good), 8.45-8.24 and 7.98.

CORN: While there are a couple of slightly different interpretations that are possible over the short-term, the overall pattern in corn continues to strongly indicate that a MAJOR, Primary wave-[c] DECLINE is unfolding-off the Jan top. In fact, since it also appears likely that we HAVE NOT even reached the MOST BEARISH-POSITION YET, or wave-(3)-of-Primary wave-[c], we’ll probably want try and ADD to our shorts...on the next bounce. Note, IF we’re ONLY in wave-one down now, of the larger wave-(3), then the MOST DYNAMIC/BEARISH POSITION should actually be at hand AFTER the next multi-day rally unfolds ,i.e., wave-two, of the larger wave-(3) decline. Anyhow, I’ll be watching the intra-day pattern closely...for a good spot to ADD. Resist. is at 3.47, 3.55 ½-3.60 and 3.67-3.70, w/support at 3.45-3.43 3/4/3.37 ½-3.35/3.27 3/4-3.24 ½/3.15.

WHEAT: While the current pattern in wheat continues to look QUITE BEARISH, my "time analysis" does indicate that the OPTIMUM PERIOD FOR A MAJOR LOW IS SOMETIME THIS MONTH. Thus, since we ONLY need to drop below the 2009 low of 4.25 1/4, in order to make a case for a completed, Primary wave-[c]decline, I’m guessing that our next play here will be on the long-side. Note, that once a Double-Three formation off the 2008 top is in place, the pattern will call for a MAJOR ADVANCE of the same-degree as the entire 2008-2010 decline. Support for the May wheat is at 4.45 ½-4.35, 4.24-4.10 and 3.98 ½-3.83 ½, with the resistance at 4.56 ½-4.63 ½, 4.73-4.76, 4.87 1/4-4.94 and 5.03-5.08 ½.

COTTON: As long as the May cotton holds KEY RESISTANCE AT 83.08-83.39, our Preferred Count will continue to indicate that the entire, SCWAVE-(B) advance from the 2001 low has ENDED. In which case, the MOST BEARISH POSITION SINCE 1995 should be close. However, IF 83.39 is exceeded by much, then I’m assuming that the Mar 1 high at 84.32 will ALSO be violated. In this event, BEFORE a major top is hit, prices will likely stage a "re-test" of the 2008 high of 91.38. Support is at 80.98-80.60 79.32-78.06, 76.72-76.00 and 74.57-73.94.

HOGS: Since we have obviously confirmed that the Mar 4-Mar 26 decline in the April hogs was ONLY a correction of intermediate-degree, we can forget about completing the advance that started back in Aug 2009....UNTIL April goes off-the-board (April 15). At that time, however, once June becomes the nearby contract, then I think it’s highly likely that a TREMENDOUS TOP OF PRIMARY OR CYCLE-DEGREE will be VERY CLOSE. Thus, as we get closer to the Mid-April period, we’ll have to see "where" June is trading; relative to our long-term resistance numbers. Resistance for the April hogs is at 76.00-76.45, 77.20-77.90 and 78.85-78.92,w/support at 75.20-74.85/73.65/72.82-72.37/71.35-70.80/70.02-69.62

ELLIOTT WAVE FUTURES MONITOR

COFFEE: Since the May coffee closed SLIGHTLY ABOVE OUR KEY RESISTANCE AT 137.00-138.65 on Monday, I guess prices could be headed for the LAST REALLY GOOD AREA that I can detect, or 141.45-143.80. It should be duly noted, however that in Elliott terms, this market continues to look like "an accident waiting to happen". In short, because the rally-off the 2008 low not only produced a VERY BEARISH-LOOKING, "three-wave pattern", but the drop from the Dec 2009 top (149.20) also resulted in a crystal-clear, "five-wave movement", it’s nearly impossible to come-up with anything other than a HIGHLY NEGATIVE COUNT! Of course, in theory, I guess it’s possible that prices could go all the way back up to the 2009 top first (149.20)?? Near-term resistance is at 139.60-140.50, with support at 138.90/137.15/135.65-133.65/131.30-128.95/127.55/126.30-125.35

SUGAR: Since we now have a decent-looking, "five-wave decline" in place from the Feb 1 top in sugar (30.40), AND prices ALSO achieved EXCELLENT SUPPORT AT 15.58-15.10 (last Thursday), I can make a pretty good case for a completed decline of Primary-degree. In which case, prices should now stage a several-week rally (also of Primary-degree), probably back-up to AT LEAST THE 19.66-19.91 LEVEL. However, because the "fifth-wave" section down was quite short in terms of "time", at only 1 ½-trading days, I’m inclined to hold-off at least another day..before considering a long-position. Note, IF the current bounce fails, then wave-five down could extend to our next MAJOR SUPPORT CLUSTER; or 14.37-13.84. Resistance is at 16.98-17.33, 17.76, 18.49-18.53, 19.16 and 19.66-19.91

COCOA: Since the rally in May cocoa has now EQUALED the duration of the Dec 28-Jan 21/wave-[2] rally, AND prices have also reached our next MAJOR RESISTANCE CLUSTER at 2985-3026, it sure looks we have a GREAT SELL here. Note, as long as we hold close to this area, which yields the 50%-30.9%-retracement combination from the 1977/2010 highs, AND appreciations of 344.1%, 130.9%, 61.8% and 9.1% from the 2000, 2004, 2008 and 2010 lows, the pattern will call for a SIGNIFICANT, Primary wave-[4] peak. In which case, the next "leg-down", or Primary wave-[5], will project to AT LEAST 2695-2682. The next resistance is at 3079-3096/3156-3186, w/support at 2919-2905/2848-2834/2769-2737/2690.

OJ: Although a major top has NOT been confirmed in the OJ yet, the development of a "five-wave decline" off the Mar 8 high has clearly shifted the odds in favor of a BEARISH COUNT. In short, because we had already confirmed a completed "thrust-wave rally"...from the Jan-Feb "Contracting Triangle", AND "triangles" usually occur in a position that is just prior to the FINAL MOVEMENT in the direction of the larger trend, the early implication was that a CYCLE-WAVE-B may have peaked. Thus, when you couple that with a "5-down", one really has to figure that a major TREND-CHANGE may be at hand. Anyhow, IF the next multi-day bounce looks like a "bearish-three", we’ll try the short-side. Resistance for May OJ is at 137.00-138.70, 141.30-142.00, 145.60-146.90 and 149.85-151.75, w/support at 135.55/133.00-131.25/129.55-129.40/127.75-126.15.

SILVER: [No change] Since ALL of the required waves for a potentially completed, wave-[b]advance off the Feb low are now in place in the May silver, AND prices have also hit our MAJOR RESISTANCE CLUSTER AT 17.95-18.30, it continues to look like we should have AN EXCELLENT SELLING OPPORTUNITY. Note, as long as prices hold close to this area, which yields the 30.9%-69.1%-retracement combination from the 1980 and 2009 highs, the 61.8%-times wave-(a) projection, AND appreciations of 414.58%, 114.58%, 52.95%, 44.1%, 23.6% and 9.1% from the 1993/2008/April 2009/July 2009/Feb 2010/Mar 24 lows, a POWERFUL, Primary wave-[c]decline will be indicated. The MINIMUM, downside target for which is at 11.88-11.52. The next resist. is at 18.405, 18.835, 19.26 and 19.69, with support at 18.11-18.02/17.82-17.62/17.405/17.14-17.01/16.69-16.595/16.425/16.185.

STOCKS: Since the June S&P has now slightly exceeded our long-term target at 1174.50-1180.50, it looks like we’re headed for at least 1189.50-1195.75; if not to our next MAJOR CLUSTER AT 1204.25-1208.50. However, because everything else continues to suggest that a MAJOR, CYCLE-WAVE-ONE PEAK IS CLOSE(?), we’ll continue to watch for ANY SIGN of a top. Which, at least for now, is probably going to require A DROP IN EXCESS OF 3 ½-TRADING DAYS. Support for June is at 1183.25/1176.00/1169.00/1161.50/1154.50(good)/1147.00/1139.75(good)/1132.50.

NEW TRADES AND OPEN POSITIONS 04/06/10

CORN: Hedgers/traders keep ALL STOPS on short May Corn at 3.62 1/4 (+$3,162).

COTTON: HRT/hedgers(25%) keep the stop on short May cotton at 83.61 (-$700).

COCOA: Traders are short the May cocoa from 3172 and 2983 (+$2,490). Keep ALL STOPS AT 3056 for now.

COFFEE: Traders are short May coffee at 137.25(-$900). Keep stop at 139.95. SILVER: We are short a May mini silver at 17.935(-$183). Keep stop at 18.535.