brent harris elliott wave
futures market advisory service

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coffee (jan. 31, 2009)

as long as the advance from the dec 2008 low in coffee (101.60) does not exceed critical/maximum resistance at the 126.95-127.80 level, the wave-pattern will remain extremely bearish! in fact, because the current advance will equal the 3-month duration of the cycle-wave-two rally around late february, it looks like most bearish position since the 1997 top could be at hand within the next few weeks. in essence, because our preferred count indicates that the decline from the feb. 2008 top (169.60) should be of the same-degree as the huge 1997-2001/super-cycle-wave-(a) drop (318.00-to-41.50), and it looks like we are just now about to enter the primary wave-[1], of cycle-wave-five section down, one heck of an "acceleration" appears likely. note, because we really haven�t seen an "extension phase" yet, and our minimum (long-term), downside target is at the 65.95-64.00 level, we could be looking at a 55.00-to-60.00-cent drop...in just the next 6-to-12-months. note, that this minimum target area yields the 38.2%-times wave-(a) projection, an 80.9%-retracement from the 2001 low, and depreciations of 80.9% and 61.8% from the 1977 and 2008 highs. anyhow, at present, our optimum resistance areas/sell-zones are at 121.00-122.60, 124.40-125.55 and 126.95-127.80 basis the nearby contract. of course, on the other side of the coin, in the event prices first close-above the critical 126.95-127.80 resistance level, then we�ll probably have to conclude that the bull cycle from the 2001 low is not over yet. given this development, traders should quickly "shift-gears" and look to go long, as we�ll probably see a final, wave-c advance to new highs (+169.60). if so, we�ll not only have a good, quick play on the long-side initially, but then, an even better selling opportunity. note, that our optimum sell-zone in this case, will then be at the 179.20-180.75 level. this area yields the 61.8%-times wave-a projection, the 47.05%-50%-retracement combination from the 1977 and 1997 highs, and appreciations of 334.5% and 76.4% from the 2001 and 2008 lows. at any rate, based on the current configuration, whether or not i have the preferred count right, it seems highly likely that we are going to see some big moves develop over the next few months....either way.

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