Brent Harris Elliott Wave
Futures Market Advisory Service
4-15-2011
ELLIOTT AG PAGE
SOYBEANS: [See Chart] Since we only need a minor bounce here to potentially complete a “wave-four” in the May beans, the stage could be set for a FINAL, “fifth-wave” section down...over the next couple of days. In which case, IF EITHER of our two BEST TARGETS are also hit, at 12.84 ½-12.70 ½ and/or 12.50 1/4-12.40 1/4 (best), we’ll at least look to take profits on our shorts; if not go long. Note, that once it’s possible to label a completed, (c)-wave de-cline off the Mar 31 high, our Preferred Count will then call for a FINAL, wave-[5] advance to AT LEAST 15.33 ½-15.56. It should be duly noted, however, that once a “five”, or “nine-wave” decline is in place from the Mar 31 top, then it’s IMPERATIVE that the next 1-week plus rally traces-out a “five-wave-impulse-pattern”. IF IT DOES NOT, then the odds of a MAJOR, LONG-TERM TOP WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY! Resistance for May is at 13.40 ½-13.44, 13.55-13.63 ½, 13.73 and 13.81 ½-13.89, with the support at 13.26 ½-13.19, 12.96, 12.84 ½-12.70 ½ and 12.50.
CORN: Again, since it’s theoretically possible to label a completed, Diagonal Triangle, “fifth-wave advance” off the Mar 16 low in the corn, a HIGHLY BEAR-ISH COUNT could be at hand here...especially IF a new sell-off low occurs AFTER Tues., April 19. Overall, however, because these formations are pretty RARE, AND we have NOT confirmed “long-term tops” in EITHER the beans or wheat (yet?), the FAR MORE LIKELY SCENARIO is that the corn is simply in a “wave-four” correction, of the same-degree as the Mar 21-31/”wave-two” pullback. In which case, IF we can get ONE MORE DROP to new sell-off lows between now AND LATE MONDAY (April 18), traders can look to go lightly long. Note, that once a “wave-four low” is in place, the pattern will call for a “fifth-wave rally” to LEAST 7.96-8.03 ½ in the nearby contract, or about 8.03-8.10 ½ basis JULY. The BEST RESISTANCE CLUSTER, however, is at 8.34-8.43 ½ in the nearby contract. Anyhow, our OPTIMUM BUY-ZONE for the JULY corn is now at about 7.36-7.32 ½, with a move as low as 7.23 ½-7.18 3/4 also quite possible. N. t. support for JULY is at 7.49 ½-7.46, with the resistance at 7.55 ½-7.66 and 7.76 3/4-7.81.
WHEAT: Considering that the BEST COUNT continues to indicate that a (c)-wave decline is unfolding-off the April 11 high in May wheat, with a MINIMUM, downside objective at 6.54 3/4-6.47 1/4, I’d still be willing to go short...IF we can get a “wave-two bounce” now. However, IF prices drop much UNDER Thursday’s low first, then we’ll probably just wait for the “buy”. Note, that once it’s possible to label a completed, “five” or “nine-wave” decline off the April 11 high, then the pattern will call for a POWERFUL, wave-[c]advance to ABOVE the Feb continuation chart top (+8.93 1/4). Support is at 7.43, 7.29 ½-7.22 ½ and 7.13-7.02 ½, with the resistance at 7.50-7.56, 7.65 ½-7.72 ½, 7.81 ½-7.88 ½ and 7.97.
COTTON: Although our next trade in cotton will be in the JULY contract, the MORE IMPORTANT ISSUE right now...is what happens with the nearby May cotton. In short, IF the May cotton now EXCEEDS the April 5 low at 188.85, then we’ll almost certainly confirm that the continuation chart advance from the 2008 low has ENDED; if not the entire advance from the 2001 bottom. Which, will imply the MOST BEARISH POSITION SINCE AT LEAST 1995; IF NOT SINCE THE CIVIL WAR. Of course, this market has had a “million lives”. So, at this point, I probably WON’T focus on the “selling rallies”...UNLESS or UNTIL 188.85 is violated.
HOGS: Since the (now nearby) May and June hogs have indeed left a HUGE GAP-ABOVE THE CRITICAL FEB continuation chart high at 95.00, we’ve obviously confirmed that the advance off the Mar (cont. chart low) is a “wave-(3)”, of the same-degree as the BIG, Nov 2010-Feb 2011/”wave-one advance”. In which case, when you consider that JUST the EQUAL-WAVES, “one”-and-“three projection yields a target of 113.92, we’re clearly still looking to BUY a pullback. To that end, since we’ll probably have at least an 8.00-point “gap” here, I’m hoping that prices will try and “fill” at least HALF of that amount. Anyhow, based on the new cont. chart highs that we’re hit on Friday, the KEY SUPPORT/BUY-ZONES for JUNE hogs are now at 98.65-98.45, 97.60-97.20 and 96.75-96.17(best!).
ELLIOTT WAVE FUTURES MONITOR
STOCKS: As long as the June S&P “holds” our BIG SUPPORT AT 1301.75-1293.50, the BEST COUNT will continue to indicate that a wave-two low” is at hand. In which case, since the “wave-three” section up projects to 1385.75-1393.50, with an eventual move as high as 1423.75-1431.50 also quite possible, we’ll obviously want to try and stay long. IF 1293.50 is EXCEEDED by much, however, then traders should exercise GREAT CAUTION! In this case, we’ll probably see a quick drop to 1268.25-1262.75, with a move UNDER the Mar low a distinct possibility. There’s also support at 1310.75 and 1283.75-1282.00 (pretty good?), with the resistance at 1312.50-1319.00, 1331.00-1337.50(good) and 1348.75-1358.75.
SILVER: Given that the last pullback in May silver did NOT even last for 2-trading days, AND prices have now “blown-out” HUGE RESISTANCE AT 41.235-41.64, the near-term pattern obviously looks pretty BULLISH. Note, while I do have some resistance at 42.37-42.55, the next BIG CLUSTER is up at 43.51-43.60. At this point, however, because we still need to see a SIZEABLE, 5-to-7-day/”wave-four setback”...at some point, I seriously doubt I’ll try the long-side until then. In fact, IF you’re a “brave soul”, however, you might even consider taking a shot at the short-side near 43.50, using a stop just ABOVE 44.00. Support is at 42.44, 41.875(good), 41.305, 41.02, 40.735(good), 40.17 and 39.605.
COFFEE: While the internal formation since the April 5 low in coffee has NOT exactly been easy-to-read, developments over the past two days have certainly “shifted” the odds in favor of the BULL-CASE. In short, because it now looks like a “five”, OR “nine-wave” impulse-pattern is indeed unfolding (off the April 5 low), the implication here is that we’re heading for new highs. In which case, when you consider that the 1997 top at 318.00 is NOT that far beyond the Mar top, I suspect that prices are going to try for the 318.00 area. Thus, IF we can get another 1-to-2-day pullback, BEFORE prices go too much higher, HIGH RISK TRADERS may want to try the long-side. To that end, the BEST SUPPORT/BUY-ZONE for July is probably still at about the 276.20-274.65 level. However, IF we DON’T turn back down pretty hard on Monday, then the BEST AREA will move-UP to 283.70-281.30. There is also support at 287.90-287.50, 272.25-271.05 and 268.45-267.05, with the resistance now at 290.55-291.20, 293.85-295.60 (good), 297.00, 305.40-305.60 and 311.45-313.55.
COCOA: Although the overall pattern in cocoa continues to indicate that SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER PRICES are likely longer-term, Thursday’s “penetration” of key resistance has confirmed that the Mar-April drop was ONLY a “three-wave” pattern. Thus, since this means that we’re now in a wave-(b) advance, as opposed to a MORE BEARISH, wave-(2), the “risk” of a MUCH LARGER RALLY HAS INCREASED considerably. Which, as far as I’m concerned, may actually present an EVEN BETTER SELLING OPPORTUNITY. Anyhow, for now, we’ll be looking to sell JULY, once it’s possible to label a completed, c-wave rally off the April 8 low. Which, will probably take at least another couple of days. Resistance for July is at 3205-3256 (good), 3296-3320 and 3388-3428, with the support at 3127-3098, 3041-3072 and 2970.
OJ: While the next “big play” in the OJ will probably be on the short-side, presumably within the next month or two, the intermediate-term pattern does suggest that the Jan-Mar decline was ONLY a “corrective”, wave-[b]. Thus, since it now looks like a BULLISH, “five-wave rally” has also developed-off the Mar 22 low, aggressive traders should probably attempt a LIGHT long-position. Note, that IF we are indeed in a FINAL, [c]-wave advance here, then the nearby contract should reach AT LEAST THE 193.80-196.30 LEVEL ,i.e., BEFORE the stage will presumably be set for ONE HECK OF A SELL! Support for May is at 167.20, 164.95-164.05 and 162.30-160.05 (max), with the resistance at 170.70, 173.85-175.40 and 177.35.
NEW TRADES AND OPEN POSITIONS 04/18/11
SOYBEANS: Hedgers (20%)/traders (2-May mini’s) are short the May beans from 13.59 ½ (+$555). LOWER the stop to 13.66 3/4. Also, IF a MOVE BELOW *13.00 occurs, then LOWER the stop to 13.48 1/4.
CORN: HIGH RISK TRADERS (big contract)/traders (2-mini’s) can buy the JULY corn at *7.36, using a stop at *7.11 3/4.
WHEAT: Traders can sell 2-May mini wheat at *7.65, using a stop at *7.91 3/4. CANCEL THIS TRADE, however, IF May wheat first DROPS BELOW 7.30.
STOCKS: Traders are long a June mini S&P at 1302.25(+$687). Keep the stop at 1286.75.
OJ: HRT are long the May OJ from 167.20 (+$360). RAISE the stop to 165.55.