SOYBEANS: Considering that the Feb 29-to-March 21 rally in the MAY beans (11.28 1/2-to-12.26 3/4) was a week or two SHORTER in terms of "time", than that of the Oct-Nov 2023 advance, there' s still A SLIGHT CHANCE that we need to trace-out A FINAL, "c-wave RALLY". However, because we' ve ALREADY HIT OUR OPTIMUM, UPSIDE TARGET AT 12.27-12.30, AND we' re now also WELL-PAST the best time for a final, "c-wave ADVANCE", I' m betting that we' re now WELL-INTO what will hopefully prove to be A FINAL, "wave-(5)-of-[c]DECLINE". So, at least for now, as long as we hold our closest area of STRONG RESISTANCE AT 11.90 1/2-TO-11.98, WE' LL STAY SHORT. Note, this zone incorporates the "41.15%-11.795%-61.8%-retracement combination" from the 2012, 2022 and March 2024 highs, AND "appreciations" 57.375%, 10.40% and 3.441% from the 2019, Feb 2024 and April 11, 2024 lows. Anyhow, if this count is right, by the time we' ve finished a "9-wave/(5)th-wave DROP" from the March peak, we should at least RE-TEST THE LOW-END OF OUR MINIMUM TARGET AT 11.17-10.98; WITH THE MAX AREA AT 10.83-10.72 1/2. These zones yield the "50%-67.275%-AND-51.475%-70.925%-retracement combinations" from the 1999 and 2019 lows, AND depreciations of 38.2%/38.2%/30.9%-AND-39.67%/39.67%/32.725% from the 2012, 2022 and July 2023 highs. Once this phase has ENDED, however, then we' ll have presumably ALSO FINISHED an "A-wave DROP" from the 2022 peak. At which time, we should see at least A MAJOR, 6-MONTH PLUS, "B-wave RALLY"! Near-term resistance is at 11.65-11.71 and 11.82-11.84, with the near-term support at 11.46-11.36(good?).

CORN: Given that ALL of the necessary waves for a potentially COMPLE-TED, "SC-Wave-(C)DECLINE" from the 2022 high ARE already "in place" in the corn; at the Feb "continuation chart" low OF 3.94 1/2, it' s quite possible that A MAJOR UP-MOVE IS UNDER WAY? For now, however, because the initial advance-off said bottom has so far ONLY produced a potentially BEARISH, "(3)-wave" pattern, my SLIGHTLY Preferred Count continues to suggest that we still need to see A FINAL DROP TO NEW LOWS (-3.94 1/2). Given this scenario, based on the proximity of the "80.9%-times SC-Wave-(A)" projection, an "83.15%-retracement" from the 2020 bottom, AND "depreciations" of 54.425%, 52.95% and 13.1875% from 2012, 2022 and March 2024 highs, my guess is that the MAY AND/OR JULY CONTRACTS COULD FALL TO THE 3.89-3.84 1/2 AREA. On the other hand, however, if it EITHER becomes apparent that the advance-off the Feb low is NOT just a "CORRECTIVE-RALLY", OR KEY RESISTANCE AT 4.56 1/2-TO-4.69 IS TAKEN-0UT, then we' d presumably have to figure that we have indeed HIT THE FINAL LOW. Note, this zone yields the 30.9%-14.58%-retracement combination from the 2012 and 2022 highs, AND appreciations of 55.9% and 16.835% from the 2020 and 2024 lows. At any rate, either way, once we' ve CONFIRMED A COMPLETED, "SC-Wave-(C)DECLINE" from the 2022 top, then that SHOULD ALSO MARK THE END OF THE "Bear-Cycle" from the 2012 high (8.43 3/4). At which point, we should see AT LEAST A MAJOR, 1-YEAR PLUS ADVANCE; IF NOT THE START OF A NEW "BULL-MARKET! N. t. resistance is at 4.33 1/2 and 4.45 1/2-4.48 1/2(good), with near-term support at 4.26-4.22(good) and 4.13 1/2-4.09(good). +12 1/2-CENTS JULY.

WHEAT: [SEE New Trades] While the "duration" of the setback from the April 5 high of 5.74 3/4 in the MAY wheat is a bit LONGER than I would have preferred, the BEST COUNT here still indicates that the March "continuation chart" low AT 5.19 1/2 HAS ALREADY MARKED THE END of the "Cycle-wave-A DECLINE" from the 2022 top. Thus, as long as we HOLD IN-TERIM SUPPORT BETWEEN ABOUT 5.45-AND-5.35, we' ll STAY LONG. Given this scenario, which implies that we' re in the early stages of A MAJOR, "B-wave ADVANCE", of the same-degree as the 2022-2024 drop, we ought to REMAIN IN A GENERAL UPTREND FOR AT LEAST 6-TO-9-MONTHS. Based on the proximity of the KEY, "14.58%-50%-AND-23.6%-85.4%-retracement combinations" from the 2022 and July 2023 highs, AND appreciations of 80.9%-25.425%-AND-105.568%/41.15% from the 2016 and 2024 lows, this scenario continues to point to A NEAR-TERM TARGET AT 6.49-6.53; with the eventual, "wave-[a]OBJECTIVE"; AT ABOUT THE 7.31-7.39 LEVEL? In the event the 5.45-5.35 SUPPORT IS VIOLATED FIRST, however, then we' ll have to figure that we still need to trace-out A FINAL, "wave-[9]DECLINE" TO OUR MAX TARGET AT 5.18 1/2-5.06 (ADD 15 1/2-CENTS FOR JULY). Which, yields the "76.4%-85.4%-retracement combination" from the 1999 and 2016 lows, AND "depreciations" of 63.625%, 34.55%, 19.1%, 16.835% AND 9.1% from the 2022, July 2023, Dec 2023, Jan 2024 and March 2024 highs. There' s also support at 5.50 1/2 and 5.27 1/2, with near-term resistance at 5.56, 5.67-5.70(good/key), 5.81 1/2-5.87 1/2 and 5.96-6.01(good).

COTTON: Again, since the Feb top at 103.80 in the MAY cotton occurred right at our KEY, 103.09-103.75 RESISTANCE AREA, which possesses the "138.2%-times wave-(a)" projection, the "30.9%-38.2%-retracement com-bination" from the 2011 and 2022 highs, AND A LOT of "appreciations", AND a "5-wave DECLINE" appears to have followed, we' ve likely CONFIRM-ED A COMPLETED, "[b]-wave RALLY" from the 2022 low. In which case, since this count implies that we' re currently in JUST the "wave-(3)-of-[c]SECTION DOWN", we' ll hopefully soon have a chance to SELL A DE-CENT, 1-WEEK PLUS, "wave-(4)CORRECTIVE-RALLY", of the same-degree as the March 4-to-March 8 advance? Overall, however, if this count is correct, by the time we' ve traced-out a larger, "(5)-OR-(9)-wave/[c]-wave DROP" from the Feb 2024 peak, of the same-degree as the May-Oct 2022 decline THE NEARBY CONTRACT OUGHT TO REACH EITHER OF OUR OPTIMUM, DOWNSIDE TARGETS; AT 67.66-66.00 AND/OR 62.69-61.35? Note, these areas possess the "80.9%-83.15%-AND-83.15%-88.15%-retracement combinations" from the 2001 and 2020 lows, AND "depreciations" of 70.925%/57.375%-AND-72.75%/60.325% from the 2011 and 2022 highs. Near-term resistance is at 84.47, 85.30, 86.22-86.78(good/key), 88.06-88.49 and 89.60-90.97 (good/key), with the near-term support at 82.67-81.64(good-key), 80.60 and 79.01-78.24(good/key?). ADD ABOUT 2.10-CENTS FOR THE JULY NUMBERS.

HOGS: Although I kind of had a bad feeling that Wednesday' s drop in the (now nearby) JUNE hogs was "too good to be true" for a rollover, as we had JUST TAKEN A NICE PROFIT OF 3,200 in the APRIL contract, the pattern DIDN' T look bearish at the time. However, after Friday' s "PENETRATION" OF GOOD SUPPORT AT 104.70-103.50, it now looks like we HAVE CONFIRMED A COMPLETED ADVANCE from the Jan low. Note, this zone was about EQUAL in "size" to ALL of the larger "PULLBACKS" since the Jan bottom, possessed the "23.6%-retrace-ment", AND a "4.50%-to-5.568%-depreciation" from the April 10 top. Anyhow, since we' re still going to have A BIG, GAP-UP on the "continuation chart", the pattern here still suggests that we' re in a "Cycle-wave-C ADVANCE", of the same-degree as the 2020-2021 rally. Thus, provided the current decline from the April 10 high of 109.65 in the JUNE hogs ONLY ends-up producing A MODERATELY LARGER, "Single", OR "Double-Three", then we' ll be looking to RE-ENTER LONG. Given this scenario, by the time we' ve finished a larger, "[5]-OR-[9]-wave/C-wave RALLY" from the Jan 2024 "continuation chart" low of 64.57, it continues to look like the JUNE, JULY AND/OR AUGUST CON-TRACTS WILL HIT THE 17.55-119.75 AREA. Which, yields the "61.8%-times wave-A" projection, the "85.4%-92.71%-retracement combination" from the 2014 and 2021 highs, AND "appreciations" of 223.6% and 85.4% from the 2020 and 2024 lows. Support for JUNE is at 101.75-101.45, 99.92-99.62(good), 98.40-98.10(good) and 96.87-96.67, with the resistance at 102.30, 103.25, 104.15-104.35(good), 105.25 and 106.15-106.35(good).

ELLIOTT WAVE FUTURES MONITOR

STOCKS: Given that the decline from the April 1 top in the JUNE Mini Dow Jones has now EXCEEDED BOTH the greatest "size" AND "duration" of ANY other drop since the Oct 2023 low, we may have ALREADY CONFIRMED A COMPLETED, "wave-[5]ADVANCE" here? However, because we' ve NOT YET done the same in the Mini S&P, A HIGHLY-PIVOTAL POSITION appears to remain at hand here? Note, if an immediate, "5-wave RALLY" develops in BOTH, then the Mini S&P COULD STILL HIT OUR MAX TARGET; AT 5514.00-5580.25 ,i.e., BEFORE a "wave-[6]DECLINE" begins? This area yields the "50%-times WAVES-I-THRU-III", AND the "76.4%-times WAVE-III" projections, AND "appreciations" of 738.2%, 155.9%, 58.85% and 34.55% from the 2009, 2020, 2022 and Oct 2023 lows. If we DON' T see a near immediate, "5-wave RALLY", however, then we' ll have to figure that we are indeed in a "wave-[6]SETBACK". In this case, we should REMAIN IN A DOWNTREND FOR ABOUT 2-TO-3-MONTHS; WITH THE MINIMUM, DOWNSIDE TARGET AT 4913.00-4853.00. This zone yields the "Equal Waves "[4]-AND-[6]" projection, the "9.1%-23.6%-retracement combination" from the 2009 and 2022 lows, AND a "9.1%-depreciation" from the April 1 top. Upon the completion of the "wave-[6]DECLINE", however, then the stage should be set for THE OFTEN POWERFUL, "wave-[7]SECTION UP"! Near-term resistance is at 5126.50-5146.50(good), 5178.50-5191.00, 5242.50-5253.00, 5274.50, 5303.00-5307.00(good/key) and 5338.75, with near-term support at 5098.25-5093.25, 5073.50-5036.50(good/key), 4993.25-4984.00(good) and 4948.00-4940.00.

SILVER: Given that ALL of the necessary waves for a potentially COMPLETED, "wave-(5)ADVANCE" from the March 27 low ARE "in place" now in the MAY silver, AND WE' VE ALSO HIT OUR KEY, 29.57-29.86 RESISTANCE LE-VEL, traders should' ve taken A VERY NICE PROFIT on longs. Note, this area yields the "55.9%-47.05%-94.43%-retracement combination" from the 1980, 2011 and 2021 highs, AND A LOT of "appreciations" from previous lows. Anyhow, if we have started a "wave-(6)SETBACK" here, then we' ll presumably REMAIN IN A "CORRECTION" FOR ABOUT 1-TO-1 1/2-WEEKS? After the sharp drop on Friday, however, it' conceivable that the initial, "a-wave" WILL HIT THE "PRICE-LOW". Thus, since we' ve ALREADY-HIT OUR BEST SUPPORT; AT ABOUT 27.85-27.61, traders should' ve gone ahead and RE-ENTERED LONG. Under this count, upon the completion of a "wave-(6) DECLINE", believe it or not, the stage could actually be set for AN EVEN MORE POWERFUL, "wave-(7)"! If so, by the time we' ve finished waves "(7)-UP", "(8)-DOWN", AND "(9)-UP", it still looks like WE' LL EASILY REACH OUR MINIMUM TARGET BETWEEN 31.62-AND-32.45. Which, yields the KEY, "76.4%-times wave-A" projection", the "61.8%-52.95%-retracement combination" from the 1980 and 2011 highs, AND "appreciations" of 172.75%, 85.4%, 52.95% and 47.05% from the 2020, 2022, 2023 and 2024 lows. In the event it' s EITHER NOT possible to label a completed, "wave-[5]ADVANCE" off the Feb 2024 low when this area is hit, however, OR A CLOSE-OVER 32.45 OCCURS, then we could also SEE A MOVE-UP TO OUR MAXIMUM, UPSIDE TARGET AT ABOUT 35.27-TO-36.01? Near-term resistance is at 28.53 and 29.00-29.09, with the support at 28.71-28.58, 28.16-28.03, 27.85-27.61(best?), 27.345-27.115(good/max?) and 26.795-26.66(good).

CRUDE OIL: Given that we now have a "Double-Top" pretty close to the KEY, "61.8%-times wave-(a)" projection in the nearby MAY Crude Oil; at the April 5 and April 12 highs of 87.63 and 87.67, respectively, I' ll be keeping a "close-eye" on the near-term pattern. Note, if we happen to witness a CLEAR, "5-wave DECLINE", BEFORE A STRONG CLOSE-OVER 87.11 OCCURS, then there' s a chance that we could' ve COMPLETED a "b-wave AD-VANCE" off the Dec 2023 low? For now, however, because the up-move from said low continues to look like an as yet UNFINISHED, "(c)-wave RALLY", of the same-degree as the May-Sept 2023 advance, my guess is that we' re AT LEAST GOING TO TAKE-OUT THE SEPT 2023 TOP AT 95.03. If so, based on the proximity of the "100%-AND-114.58%-times wave-(a)" projections, the "74.425%-52.95%-AND-76.4%-58.85%-retracement combinations" from the 2008 and 2022 highs, AND "appreciations" of 55.9%-47.05%-AND-61.8%/52.95% from the May and Dec lows, it still looks like THE MINIMUM TARGET IS AT ABOUT THE 99.04-99.57 LEVEL; WITH THE BEST OBJECTIVE AT 102.68-103.68. Assuming it eventually becomes possible to label A COMPLETED, "Single", OR "Double-Three ADVANCE" from the May 2023 bottom, however, then that should also translate into A MAJOR, "[b]-wave TOP". At which time, the stage should be set for A SUBSTANTIAL, BUT FINAL, "[c]-wave DECLINE", of the same-degree as the 2022-2023 drop! Support is 84.50-83.95, 83.03-82.32(good), 80.95-80.15 (good/key) and 79.27 with the near-term resistance at 85.52-85.88 (good), 87.59-87.96, 89.18-89.83(good/key?) and 91.01-91.70 (good).

COFFEE: Again, because ALL of the necessary waves for a potentially COMPLETED, "(3)-wave RALLY" off the Oct low ARE pretty much "in place" now in the MAY coffee, the development of a "5-wave DROP" here could mean that we' ve FINISHED a "[b]-wave RALLY" off either the Jan 2023, or Oct 2023 low? In which case, as you know by now, by the time we' ve traced-out a larger, but final, [c]-wave DECLINE", of the same-degree as the Feb 2022-Jan 2023 drop THE NEARBY CONTRACT COULD FALL TO THE 119.60-116.60 AREA? At this point, however, because we' ve now "BLOWN-OUT" THE SAME, KEY RESISTANCE AREA that produced the Dec "continuation chart" peak at 209.55; NOW AT 208.25-211.75, AND we' re well past the optimum time for a "[b]-wave PEAK, the BEST COUNT indicates that we' ve ALREADY FINISHED THE "B-wave DECLINE" from the 2022 top ,i.e., at the Jan 2023, or Oct 2023 low? This resistance area possesses the "Equal Waves "(a)-and-(c)" projection, the "57.375%-55.9%-58.85%-retracement combination" from the 1977, 2011 and 2022 highs, AND A LOT of "appreciations" from prior lows. Anyhow, if this count is right, and we' re in at least a "C-wave ADVANCE", of the same-degree as the 2019-2022 rally, then we should be HEADED FOR AT LEAST 267.65-275.05. Near-term resistance is at 230.25, 232.25, 234.25-235.50(good), 237.95-240.65 (good) and 246.00, with support at 231.15, 229.30, 228.40-226.10, 224.45, 223.30-221.35, 219.60(good), 216.60-214.80(good) and 213.00.

COCOA: Although it continues to look like the up-move from the April 4 low of 9150 in the MAY cocoa could be THE FINAL, "wave-(9)—of-[9]-SECTION UP", it now appears as though said "wave" might be unfolding into a "9-wave EXTENSION"? In which case, we' d still need to COMPLETE waves "5-UP", "6-DOWN", "7-UP", "8-DOWN", AND THEN "9-UP". Anyhow, while it' s anyone' s guess as to "how high" this market will go here, my "projections" now suggest that we' re HEADED FOR AT LEAST THE 11,218-11,231 AND/OR 11,477-11,519 RESISTANCE AREAS. These levels in-corporate the "3.00%-AND-3.09.1%-times Wave-A" projections, AND "appreciations" of "15.654%/5.345%/4.1179%-AND-16.091%-5.50%/4.236%" from the 2000, 2017 and 2022 lows. At any rate, whenever A DROP IN EXCESS OF 5-TRADING DAYS HAS FINALLY OCCURRED, then that ought to be enough to also at least CONFIRM A COMPLETED, "Cycle-wave-III ADVANCE" from the Sept 2022 low. At which time, we should see at least A SUBSTANTIAL, 6-MONTH PLUS, "Cycle-wave-IV DECLINE", of the same-degree as the 2020-2022 DROP. If this "juncture" happens to produce a bearish, "(5)-wave DECLINE" instead, however, then we could also witness A MUCH LAR-GER DOWN-MOVE! There' s also resistance 10,942-10,960(good), with the support now at 11,061, 10,971, 10,847-10,806(good), 10,729-10,689, 10,611-10,571(good/key),10,421-10,381(good), 10,231-10,191(good/key), 10,078-10,038(good) and 9924-9884(good/key). MINUS ABOUT $440 JULY.

NEW TRADES AND OPEN POSITIONS     04/16/24

BEANS: HRT/HEDGERS are short the MAY beans at 12.26 3/4 (+$3,425). Keep the stop at 12.00.

WHEAT: HRT are long MAY wheat at 5.45(+$337). Keep the stop at 5.30. If stopped-out, try to buy *JULY at 5.34 1/2, with a stop at 5.15 1/2.

COTTON: HRT/HEDGERS are short MARCH cotton at 69.59(+$1,295). Let s roll short MARCH to the MAY cotton, placing ALL STOPS ON SHORT MAY AT 70.31.

SILVER: HRT re-entered long 2-MAY 1,000 oz. silver at 27.875(+$910). Keep the stop at 26.90.